Hungary: pre-race 2017

An intriguing session of qualifying. Mildly miffed by not backing/tipping Raikkonen for pole each way at 6.5, but these things happen. If anybody did back the early Vettel tips but held their nerve better than me ahead of qualifying, the lay value on Betfair is now 1.6 (his back odds had been 5 to 6 or so earlier in the week).

Di Resta was thrown into the deep end, climbing into a car he’d never driven and getting to learn it in qualifying. Given that, he did extremely well to qualify 19^th, just 0.7s off Stroll’s time. Both Williams failed to escape the first part of qualifying, as did both Saubers. Magnussen was fastest of those ejected at this stage.

It was tight to get the last place in Q1, but Sainz just edged out Palmer (whose days increasingly appear to be numbered). In a poor show for perhaps the best midfield team, both Force Indias failed to progress, Ocon qualifying 12^th and Perez 14^th. Kvyat and Grosjean also left in Q2.

At the sharp end, it was looking like Red Bull might be able to challenge, certainly for the second row, and that Hamilton might be pretty similar to Vettel. In the end, it was not so, and the first three rows are Noah’s Ark style. Vettel got pole and Raikkonen 2^nd, then came Bottas and Hamilton. Verstappen and Ricciardo are next up.

Hulkenberg qualified 7^th but due to angering the gods of Olympus his gearbox broke earlier in the week, meaning he has a 5 place grid penalty. Great qualifying for McLaren, with Alonso and Vandoorne next (I shall be keeping a beady eye on Alonso’s 2018 title odds if McLaren returns to Mercedes). Sainz was last of the top 10, though, of course, he’ll start 9^th due to the Hulkenberg penalty.

A few notes before contemplating the race. The forecast remains 100% dry, and I’m still relatively comfortable with the early no safety car bet. It’s very hard to overtake in Hungary. Not impossible, but not easy. Everyone knows this, so strategic options are limited. The start is critical but if it’s formation flying then I’d expect the grid and the final result to bear close resemblance to one another. Contact is not common, and the first lap is the only time it seems likely (possibly a safety car restart too, although this is the circuit least likely to see one).

Also, given I already offered the No Safety Car tip, I might not have another.

Also also, just learnt Kvyat has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding someone or other. He also gets another penalty point, bringing him to 10 (hit 12 and it’s a one race ban).

With that in mind, here are my early betting thoughts:

Ocon points

Alonso top 6

Hulkenberg points

Verstappen podium

Ocon is 1.66 for points, Hulkenberg 1.53. Whilst quite possible, the odds are tight (especially on Hulkenberg given Renault’s patchy reliability).

Alonso is just evens for a top 6 finish. Bearing in mind his DNF rate is 78% those odds are not appealing. It is plausible, hence my considering it, but those odds are just too tight.

Verstappen is 3.5 for a podium. That’s interesting. I think he stands a decent chance of a good start and benefiting from strategy (because the two teams ahead of him may run into one another a little in that regard, and there’s a decent chance Raikkonen’s race will be compromised to use him as a rear gunner for Vettel).

Of my initial thoughts, only Verstappen has odds that appeal. The downside to that bet is that, leaving aside his car being only third fastest, he’s got a pretty rubbish DNF rate himself.

Browsing the markets, some things I saw of potential interest were:

Bottas, win each way, 11

Alonso, win each way, 501

Verstappen/Ricciardo, not to be classified, 3.75/4

Hulkenberg to win group B, 4

Vandoorne/Sainz to win group C, 10/2.25

The Bottas win idea is simply based on the fact he usually starts well and is a good, solid driver. He also, surprisingly, has the longest odds of the top four to win. His odds are probably too long.

The Alonso win each way bet is a silly idea, but bear with me. Usually there are a few 50/1 or 200/1 type odds between the frontrunners and lower midfield. But there’s a vast yawning chasm from 26 to 501. I’m not tipping this seriously, but might be worth flinging 50p on it. [I reserve the right to cite this in future if it happens].

Red Bull have had wonky reliability all year, and Ricciardo suffered a breakdown in practice. Little bit of a shot in the dark, but worth considering.

Group B includes, besides Hulkenberg, Alonso, Ocon and Perez. Hulkenberg has been substantially faster than all of them. Due to his penalty he’ll start behind Alonso and one place behind Ocon, but ahead of Perez. On the downside, passing is hard and his car can be a little unreliable. I think this is interesting but perhaps not quite long enough.

Group C includes Vandoorne, Sainz, Kvyat (who is demoted three places) and Grosjean. Vandoorne starts first of this group, albeit with Sainz right behind him, and has been the fastest of them all weekend. But his car is a bit fragile. If it holds, then 10 is far too long. Betting on him to DNF could be a way to hedge, albeit an imperfect one. On the other hand, if he doesn’t win it, Sainz looks very likely, so you could just back both. However, they both have a 40% DNF rate, so…

This is a bit weirdly aggravating, because I was quite ready to simply sit on the No Safety Car bet (and the early Vettel win tip). But both the Bottas and Vandoorne odds just look wrong to me.

In the end, I decided to back Bottas at 11 each way for the win.

And Vandoorne at 10 to win group C. If everyone finishes then he and Sainz should be a long way up the road from Grosjean and Kvyat (whose odds of 2.1 are frankly silly). But Sainz’s odds are barely above evens whereas Vandoorne’s look too long (they have the same DNF rate). In my view they should both be about evens.

I do habitually peruse the markets to see if anything jumps out at me, but it’s quite rare (and disconcerting) when it actually happens. Anyway, let’s hope the race is greener than a jealous Kermit the Frog.

Morris Dancer

PS For those wondering, I put a tiny sum on Alonso.