Austria: pre-race 2017

Must admit to being annoyed with myself for not backing Bottas for pole. I thought he had a decent chance of second, but never thought he’d actually get the fastest time (I thought Hamilton was nailed on). Ah well. These things happen.

Incidentally, a shield (bit like an updated aeroscreen) will be tested at the next race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40542285

In the first part of qualifying we saw the unsurprising departure of both Saubers and Palmer. More surprising was a shocking result for Williams, both of which failed to advance. It seems the aerodynamic upgrade has unbalanced the car and is seriously compromising performance. This should be a strong Williams track, instead they’re second slowest.

In the second session Hulkenberg was the fastest to depart, ahead of Alonso and Vandoorne. Kvyat was slowest but still ahead of Magnussen who reached Q2 but who couldn’t run due to suspension damage. A shame, as the Haas looked a handful, but with good pace. Worth also noting Hamilton set his Q2 time (and therefore starts the race) on the supersoft tyre, whereas all around him will be on ultrasoft. This will cost him a little at the start but allow him to run longer into the race. Assuming wet weather doesn’t affect the start or first round of pit stops.

The final part of qualifying did not go as I’d expected. On the initial runs, Bottas was a tiny margin ahead of Vettel, who was a tenth up on Hamilton. Both the title contenders had slightly iffy runs, but I thought they’d improve. They didn’t, and the last attempt was foiled when Grosjean stopped on track bringing out yellows with just a few seconds left. Accordingly, Hamilton was third fastest and will start eighth. If he starts poorly due to the supersoft, he could be at risk of midfield entanglements.

Raikkonen, Ricciardo and Verstappen are next, with Grosjean, Perez, Ocon and Sainz rounding out the top 10. I wonder what odds there are on the Pink Panthers mauling one another off the start line.

Weather forecast as of 3.40pm is that tomorrow thunderstorms are more likely than not. I fear this will further harm Williams’ prospects. But it might help out Verstappen, and also Hulkenberg and Alonso (if their cars keep working). I’d also guess it’ll marginally benefit Ferrari relative to Mercedes.

With that in mind, the first bets that sprang to mind were:
Verstappen, win
Verstappen, not to be classified
Hulkenberg/Alonso, points
Massa/Stroll, not to be classified

Verstappen is 17 to win. If it does piss it down, that might well be worth a look (each way). Or, could back and hedge. Either way, worth considering. Annoyingly, even before most of the markets were up, this got cut to 13.

Hulkenberg and Alonso are each 1.66 for points. Too tight.

The not to be classified market was oddly slow in appearing on Ladbrokes, I decided to have a browse of the others in the meantime.
Verstappen, win, 18.5 (Betfair), hedge at 4
Ferrari, double podium, 4
Classified finishers, under 15.5, 1.66
Safety Car, 1.36

Verstappen at 18.5 to win (hedged at 4) would be good. If it’s very wet. That does tally with the probable forecast, but in the dry his car is the third fastest, and it’s failed more often than not in recent races.

A double podium is most probably realistic only for the top two teams (barring something odd). However, Raikkonen has looked like the fourth fastest of them all weekend. Over the season to date, Ferrari have had two double podium finishes, so 4 is not long enough to tempt.

Five or more DNFs at 1.66 could come off. There’s been a lot of sliding, reliability failures and there are barriers and gravel traps coupled with the highest average cornering speed on the calendar (over 100mph). And potential thunderstorms. Not a fan of low odds bets generally, but this is a bit tempting. In the three preceding events, retirements (of a 22 rather than 20 car field) have been six, six and three.

A safety car has appeared at the last two events and with thunderstorms its price of 1.36 might be value. Very short odds, though.

Looking at the Betfair Sportsbook odds on Verstappen, Massa and Stroll not to be classified produces odds of 3, 3.75 and 2.375 respectively (pain to work that out from ye olde odds of 11/4 and 11/8). I think they’re intriguing, Verstappen due to reliability woe and the Williams because their cars are sliding around horrendously.

Advice: if you’re thinking of backing Verstappen on Ladbrokes, back the winning nationality market. ‘A Dutchman’ is 15, rather than the 13 for ‘Verstappen’ on the to win market (NB you can’t back each way on nationality).

After waiting overnight, the classified markets still weren’t up on Ladbrokes. I can only imagine that the errors last time (Vettel 8, Bottas 7, Perez 5) have put them off, but I hope the markets return.

Anyway, having just gotten up the two(ish) bets that look most appealing are Verstappen to win and some combination of not to be classified on Betfair Sportsbook (NB when it’s the exchange I’ll just call it Betfair for brevity).

I did a quick check to see if anything had changed. Vandoorne is 3.25 to beat Alonso, which is slightly tempting on a reliability basis but wet weather may even that out a bit and I’m not backing it. On Ladbrokes, the winning nationality odds remain longer for a Dutchman (15) than Verstappen’s in the winner market (13) but there’s no each way and it’s still some way off the 18.5 on Betfair.

Tips:
The Williams looks a handful and will be worse than others in the wet. So, I’ve backed both (half a stake each and thus counting as a single tip) on Betfair Sportsbook not to be classified (Massa 3.75, Stroll 2.375).

Verstappen to win 19 (Betfair’s odd just increased a smidge), hedged at 4. If his car makes it, and it’s as soggy as forecast, he stands a good chance. Also, if he’s going quickly and his car breaks but the hedge is matched, that covers off the not to be classified aspect.

So, let’s hope it pisses it down, Verstappen wins, and both Williams take an early bath.


Morris Dancer

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