Austria: pre-race 2017
Must admit to being
annoyed with myself for not backing Bottas for pole. I thought he had
a decent chance of second, but never thought he’d actually get the
fastest time (I thought Hamilton was nailed on). Ah well. These
things happen.
Incidentally, a shield
(bit like an updated aeroscreen) will be tested at the next race.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40542285
In the first part of
qualifying we saw the unsurprising departure of both Saubers and
Palmer. More surprising was a shocking result for Williams, both of
which failed to advance. It seems the aerodynamic upgrade has
unbalanced the car and is seriously compromising performance. This
should be a strong Williams track, instead they’re second slowest.
In the second session
Hulkenberg was the fastest to depart, ahead of Alonso and Vandoorne.
Kvyat was slowest but still ahead of Magnussen who reached Q2 but who
couldn’t run due to suspension damage. A shame, as the Haas looked
a handful, but with good pace. Worth also noting Hamilton set his Q2
time (and therefore starts the race) on the supersoft tyre, whereas
all around him will be on ultrasoft. This will cost him a little at
the start but allow him to run longer into the race. Assuming wet
weather doesn’t affect the start or first round of pit stops.
The final part of
qualifying did not go as I’d expected. On the initial runs, Bottas
was a tiny margin ahead of Vettel, who was a tenth up on Hamilton.
Both the title contenders had slightly iffy runs, but I thought
they’d improve. They didn’t, and the last attempt was foiled when
Grosjean stopped on track bringing out yellows with just a few
seconds left. Accordingly, Hamilton was third fastest and will start
eighth. If he starts poorly due to the supersoft, he could be at risk
of midfield entanglements.
Raikkonen, Ricciardo
and Verstappen are next, with Grosjean, Perez, Ocon and Sainz
rounding out the top 10. I wonder what odds there are on the Pink
Panthers mauling one another off the start line.
Weather forecast as of
3.40pm is that tomorrow thunderstorms are more likely than not. I
fear this will further harm Williams’ prospects. But it might help
out Verstappen, and also Hulkenberg and Alonso (if their cars keep
working). I’d also guess it’ll marginally benefit Ferrari
relative to Mercedes.
With that in mind, the
first bets that sprang to mind were:
Verstappen, win
Verstappen, not to be
classified
Hulkenberg/Alonso,
points
Massa/Stroll, not to be
classified
Verstappen is 17 to
win. If it does piss it down, that might well be worth a look (each
way). Or, could back and hedge. Either way, worth considering.
Annoyingly, even before most of the markets were up, this got cut to
13.
Hulkenberg and Alonso
are each 1.66 for points. Too tight.
The not to be
classified market was oddly slow in appearing on Ladbrokes, I decided
to have a browse of the others in the meantime.
Verstappen, win, 18.5
(Betfair), hedge at 4
Ferrari, double podium,
4
Classified finishers,
under 15.5, 1.66
Safety Car, 1.36
Verstappen at 18.5 to
win (hedged at 4) would be good. If it’s very wet. That does tally
with the probable forecast, but in the dry his car is the third
fastest, and it’s failed more often than not in recent races.
A double podium is most
probably realistic only for the top two teams (barring something
odd). However, Raikkonen has looked like the fourth fastest of them
all weekend. Over the season to date, Ferrari have had two double
podium finishes, so 4 is not long enough to tempt.
Five or more DNFs at
1.66 could come off. There’s been a lot of sliding, reliability
failures and there are barriers and gravel traps coupled with the
highest average cornering speed on the calendar (over 100mph). And
potential thunderstorms. Not a fan of low odds bets generally, but
this is a bit tempting. In the three preceding events, retirements
(of a 22 rather than 20 car field) have been six, six and three.
A safety car has
appeared at the last two events and with thunderstorms its price of
1.36 might be value. Very short odds, though.
Looking at the Betfair
Sportsbook odds on Verstappen, Massa and Stroll not to be classified
produces odds of 3, 3.75 and 2.375 respectively (pain to work that
out from ye olde odds of 11/4 and 11/8). I think they’re intriguing, Verstappen due
to reliability woe and the Williams because their cars are sliding
around horrendously.
Advice:
if you’re thinking of backing Verstappen on Ladbrokes, back the
winning nationality market. ‘A Dutchman’ is 15, rather than the
13 for ‘Verstappen’ on the to win market (NB you can’t back
each way on nationality).
After
waiting overnight, the classified markets still weren’t up on
Ladbrokes. I can only imagine that the errors last time (Vettel 8,
Bottas 7, Perez 5) have put them off, but I hope the markets return.
Anyway,
having just gotten up the two(ish) bets that look most appealing are
Verstappen to win and some combination of not to be classified on
Betfair Sportsbook (NB when it’s the exchange I’ll just call it
Betfair for brevity).
I
did a quick check to see if anything had changed. Vandoorne is 3.25
to beat Alonso, which is slightly tempting on a reliability basis but
wet weather may even that out a bit and I’m not backing it. On
Ladbrokes, the winning nationality odds remain longer for a Dutchman
(15) than Verstappen’s in the winner market (13) but there’s no
each way and it’s still some way off the 18.5 on Betfair.
Tips:
The
Williams looks a handful and will be worse than others in the wet.
So, I’ve backed both (half a stake each and thus counting as a
single tip) on Betfair Sportsbook not to be classified (Massa 3.75,
Stroll 2.375).
Verstappen
to win 19 (Betfair’s odd just increased a smidge), hedged at 4. If
his car makes it, and it’s as soggy as forecast, he stands a good
chance. Also, if he’s going quickly and his car breaks but the
hedge is matched, that covers off the not to be classified aspect.
So,
let’s hope it pisses it down, Verstappen wins, and both Williams
take an early bath.
Morris Dancer
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