Austria: post-race analysis 2017

An exciting end and eventful start, but not a thrilling race in between. Also, not profitable. It’s especially irksome when the two things you considered but didn’t back (Vandoorne to beat Alonso, Verstappen not to be classified) come off and the things you did back don’t come off. Still, this sort of thing happens (the weather being dry didn’t help).

Off the line Verstappen’s clutch failed, anti-stall engaged, he barely moved and, to add insult to injury, Kvyat smacked into Alonso who struck Verstappen, taking out the Spaniard and the Dutchman. Sacre bleu!

The two Williams selfishly, maliciously, and in a quite beastly manner, negotiated the carnage ahead of them expertly, both of them making up the best part of 10 places on the first lap. Raikkonen lost out a little, with Ricciardo starting very well and troubling Vettel, who managed to retain his position off the grid.

Hamilton rose to 6^th or thereabouts, having a brief swap of places with Perez, then passing Grosjean (the Haas is very good for a car that can’t decide whether its brakes are there for ornament or function).

Then the cars got strung out. And not much happened. Palmer started on the soft, and Hulkenberg was pitted fairly early on for the tyre. It turned out not to be a master stroke as this may be the first race this year that saw the German beaten by his team mate (13^th and 11^th). Odds of about 4.5 on that pre-race, for those curious.

One pit stop was the order of the day, and there was no rain of which to speak, which makes things relaxing for race strategists and not terribly exciting for viewers. Raikkonen did briefly annoy Bottas by taking the lead when the Mercedes pitted (and the Ferrari had not), but on fresher tyres Bottas simply passed his countryman with ease.

However, the tail end of the race was exciting. On the final laps Vettel was catching Bottas, whose tyres seemed very worn, at a great rate of knots. Another lap or two and he would’ve done it, but it’s a 71 lap race and Bottas won it. Similarly, Hamilton was giving Ricciardo a very hard time, but the Aussie managed to keep ahead of the Briton.

Behind them, Raikkonen had a slightly underwhelming 5^th, and Grosjean scored great points for Haas in 6^th. Perez and Ocon got 7^th and 8^th, With Massa and Stroll 9^th and 10^th. Sainz and Magnussen had to be retired. Not sure of the Spaniard’s problem, the Dane had an engine or gearbox failure.

All told, it could’ve been worse for Hamilton. He started 8^th and rose to 4^th whereas Vettel started and finished 2^nd. But the table is intriguing for another reason:

Vettel 171

Hamilton 151

Bottas 136

Is Bottas becoming a contender? He’s outscored Hamilton in most recent races and is closer to his team mate than Hamilton is to Vettel. After the silly spin in China (he’d be practically level-pegging with Hamilton but for that), Bottas has been assured, securing his first two victories, both under immense pressure.

The problem Mercedes have now, having not had a clear number one driver in Hamilton from the start (probably under the assumption he’d win by miles and be a de facto number one) is that Bottas is pretty damned close. If he won the next race and the other two DNF he’d be 10 points off the lead and 10 points ahead of Hamilton. Recently, the Briton’s had his headrest problem and then a gearbox change. If that continues, (a bit like the 2016 nightmare of gremlins) then Bottas may be better placed, ultimately.

And even without the gearbox, the Finn got pole on merit. It’s a question, not a conclusion, but one worth considering seriously.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 287

Ferrari 254

Another lacklustre performance from Raikkonen. I think he’ll be on his way out. This is close, and it isn’t done and dusted, but Ferrari is on the back foot. The equality of Hamilton and Bottas, which is harming their title chances and helping Vettel, is having the opposite impact on the Constructors’.

Must say I’m a little disheartened by the absence of rain, and also my own judgement. Should’ve bet against Verstappen (the Vandoorne/Alonso bet was misfortune). These things do happen, but it’s still a bit tiresome when they do.

The next race is next weekend, in the UK.

Morris Dancer