Brazil: post-race analysis 2016

Neither bet was anywhere near coming off because the forecast I saw was the most wrong of any forecast I’ve seen since 2009, when I started regularly tipping on F1. Had it been more accurate, the bets I would’ve looked at would’ve involved Red Bull, Hulkenberg, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Button [Verstappen did well, the rest did not]. So, all red, but if the weather and the forecast are radically different it’s hard to feel I misjudged things because my own tips were based on flawed information.

Anyway. It was very wet before and at the start. So wet, in fact, that Grosjean lost control on his way to the grid.

The start was under the safety car. At the time, I thought this was typically limp-wristed weak-kneed nonsense, but in hindsight it was probably the right call (the start was delayed by 10 minutes but this appeared to make the conditions slightly worse). After trundling around behind the safety car for a few laps, the race began.

Verstappen pounced on Raikkonen like a mongoose tackling a scorpion. Hamilton pulled away from Rosberg with ease, and, though for a moment it seemed the young Dutchman would claim 2^nd, the German managed to keep him behind and the top three settled down.

Ericsson crashed on the main straight, littering it with debris and his car coming to a rest in the pit lane entry. The safety was out and the pit lane closed (Verstappen was already committed to a tyre change, but Ricciardo came in late and got a 5s penalty).

Several cars had come in for intermediates, to the bafflement of both the Mercedes drivers.

The safety car came in, and shortly thereafter Raikkonen had a large crash (similar to Ericsson’s) and the race was red flagged. Hulkenberg was fortunate to avoid colliding with the Ferrari, and Ocon showed great reactions to avoid it too (also worth noting Ocon was wiping the floor with Wehrlein on wet weather pace, something worth considering for next year when Ocon’s at Force India).

The race restarted some time later under the safety car, and Hulkenberg (who was running around 4^th at this stage) picked up a puncture, had to pit and came out around 15^th. Rotten luck for the German, who’s a very talented chap yet has never had an F1 podium.

Another red flag, due to the weather, came out a few laps later, provoking Colosseum-style thumbs downs and boos from the crowd.

A short time later the race once again restarted under the safety car. When the safety car came in, Verstappen leapt upon the opportunity and passed Rosberg for 2^nd. The Dutchman pulled away, creating a sufficient gap that he retained the position even after suffering a significant wobble (and making a fantastic save) on the main straight.

Massa crashed on the main straight, his car stopping in front of the pit lane (which was closed again). The safety emerged, and the tearful Massa, Brazilian flag in his hands, walked down the pit lane to the applause of teams and into the embrace of his wife and son.

This created a slight dilemma for Mercedes, who had only changed their tyres (to more full wets) at the red flag stoppages. They couldn’t pit, but if they did when the safety car came in (having closed up the field), they’d emerge probably behind Verstappen.

However, fortune smiled on them. Verstappen’s inters were failing to grip in the worsening conditions and he had to pit for wets. The Mercedes stayed out, and kept a 1-2 finish.

With about a third of the laps left, Nasr was in a position to get sufficient points not merely for Sauber to pass Manor, but Renault too. Perez was on for a podium. Sainz was in 4^th, a career best.

Unfortunately for them, (and Vettel, Hulkenberg, Ocon and Kvyat), Verstappen was out there on new wet tyres, and really rather fast. He passed all of them to claim the final podium position. Had Red Bull not (unusually for them) cocked up on strategy, the win was possible and 2^nd all but certain. Likewise, Ricciardo could’ve finished rather higher than the 8^th he ended up with.

At the sharp end, it had looked like Hamilton’s win all day, and Rosberg will have to be happy with 2^nd. If he’s on the podium in Abu Dhabi, he takes the title.

Perez got an impressive 4^th, and even with his atrocious luck Hulkenberg still got 7^th. With Bottas 11^th and Massa DNF, that’s incredibly useful for Force India in their battle with Williams.

Vettel got 5^th, which isn’t bad considering he was very far down the order at one point. Sainz’s 6^th is another advert for the Spaniard’s skill. Hopefully when he leaves Toro Rosso it’s for another team rather than to leave the sport.

Nasr ended up 9^th, enough for Sauber to leapfrog Manor. I imagine the team will be rather pleased with him. Alonso got 10^th.

Rosberg has a 12 point lead over Hamilton. If Hamilton wins in Abu Dhabi, Rosberg needs only to be on the podium to take the title. Hamilton 2^nd, and 6^th would do it for Rosberg.

All else being equal, Rosberg should take the title. Rain had the potential to be a massive spanner in the works at the race, but the German remains in the best place for the title.

In the Constructors’, Force India now have a whopping 27 point lead over Williams. It’s very hard to see that being overturned.

McLaren are on 75, and Toro Rosso 63. That’s likely to remain as is, but it’s possible it could be rather close.

Renault, Sauber and Manor have 8, 2 and 1 points respectively. It’d probably take a lot of DNFs for that order to change.

So, my bets were utterly wrong, but my judgements were based on a totally inaccurate forecast. Obviously not pleased, but there’s not much that can be done about that. Rather sums up most of the season, to be honest (Spain aside), and is why only betting what you can afford to lose is The Golden Rule of betting.

The 2016 season has one more race. In a fortnight, we’re off to Abu Dhabi.

Morris Dancer