Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2016

Well, qualifying ran pretty much to form with Hamilton easily on pole and Rosberg alongside him. The one real surprise was that the Red Bulls both went for the supersoft in Q2, which means they start on the slightly more durable tyre. The rest of the top 10 are on the ultrasofts.

Both Saubers and Toro Rossos (who are having a dreadful weekend so far) exited in Q1, as did Ocon and Magnussen.

Both Haas drivers failed to reach Q3, and were joined in the departure lounge of Q2 by Wehrlein (slowest in the session), Palmer, Button and Bottas (the last two behind ahead of the Haas).

Alas, Q3 was a bit predictable. Hamilton had daylight between him and Rosberg, a yawning three-tenth gap. That said, Rosberg was over half a second faster than Ricciardo. Raikkonen and Vettel split the Red Bulls (who, alone of the top 10, start on the supersoft rather than ultrasoft). After 6^th-placed Verstappen, Hulkenberg leads Perez, and it turns out Alonso is faster than Massa, the pair making up row five.

It can be tricky to pass in Abu Dhabi. There’s a great big straight but that’s only an advantage if you’ve got roughly equal power and can get close enough. A car like the Red Bull will have great pace but it’s from the twisty bits so passing will be trickier.

It’s also worth considering how the supersoft gambit might play out. There are two potential advantages. Either one fewer pit stop is needed (giving Red Bull track position), or they might be able to go longer, enjoying a performance advantage whilst their rivals are on the soft tyre. Of course, neither may be true.

There tend not to be many retirements or a great shuffle from grid to flag, and there have been just two races from the seven to date which saw a safety car.

So, potential bets that sprung to mind:

Ricciardo win each way

Perez top 6

Few retirements

No Safety car

Ricciardo podium

Ricciardo is 15 to win each way (third the odds for top 2). That’s intriguing, especially if a bad start [though these haven’t happened for several races now], strategic woe or mechanical mishap occurs. Can he do it on pure pace, without relying on misfortune ahead of him? And are the Mercedes likely to collide? Difficult to say.

Perez is evens for top 6. Whilst he’s good at keeping the tyres going, and has a solid car, the odds are a little mean.

There’s 1.83 on Ladbrokes for over 18.5 drivers to finish. In the last two races at the circuit there have been 1 and 3 retirements. If either were matched, that would make the bet a winner. I’m pretty confident this will occur but the odds aren’t super.

No Safety Car is 1.8. Again, the odds look wrong to me. This is quite appealing. I think it’d take some misfortune for this to happen.

Ricciardo is 1.66 for a podium. Interesting to compare that against his win (each way) odds. Whilst eminently possible, I’d sooner go for the win bet, if I go for either (I think the No Safety Car and over 18.5 classified finisher bets are both likelier, as well as having slightly longer odds).

So a couple of low odds tempters and a slightly uncertain but interesting Ricciardo bet. I perused the markets to see if anything else appealed.

Verstappen win 23 – longer odds than Ricciardo but he starts 6^th. He’s also been a bit clunky at Monaco (different circuit and he’s fine at Singapore, but it’s still a potential problem).

Raikkonen/Vettel, winner without Mercedes 5 each way – if the Red Bull gambit with tyres doesn’t work, Ferrari are next up. And if it does, one of them may still finish ahead of a Red Bull anyway. Odds aren’t enormous, however, and the gain off the start (according to Christian Horner) of the ultrasoft over supersoft is less than half a yard.

Rosberg win 5.9 (Betfair) – I do think Hamilton’s a hot favourite to win but there’s only two drivers in it, barring mishap. Is 5.9 too long for Rosberg? Hamilton’s had the beating of him for several races and has looked better this weekend. Plus, Rosberg knows a podium is enough. That said, 5.9 may be too long.

Of all those mentioned so far, the Ricciardo Win each way, Raikkonen/Vettel Winner Without Mercedes each way, No Safety Car and Over 18.5 Classified Finishers markets look most tempting to me.

That’s rather too many to bet on all at once.

The two short odds bet (No Safety Car and Over 18.5 Classified Finishers) seem quite closely related. Of those, No Safety Car is my preferred. Also, you have to go back to Italy (September) for the last time Ferrari beat Red Bull.

So, that leaves the potential for our old friend No Safety Car at 1.8 and Ricciardo at 15 to win (each way). I think the win unlikely but coming 2^nd could happen. However, Abu Dhabi’s last two podium results were identical to the starting top 3. So, boring as it is, I’ve just gone for No Safety Car at 1.8.

Of course, if excitement, twists and turns and treacherous backstabbing is what you want, then check my new fantasy novel Kingdom Asunder, which came out two days ago.

Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/

Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/

Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one

Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246

My fear is, returning to F1, that the race may be a procession. Red Bull will probably be the most interesting team to watch.

Morris Dancer