Spain: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was quite interesting. No staggering shocks, but a number of surprises which add up to an intriguing grid for the race tomorrow (although worth noting hardly anyone wins from anywhere but the front row).

As expected, the Saubers and Manors exited in Q1 (Ericsson and Wehrlein beating their team mates), and it wasn’t a shock for Palmer to fail to progress in this year’s lacklustre Renault. What was a shock was Massa being only 18^th, over half a second slower than his team mate. A Williams’ technical chap (on the radio speaking to Channel 4) effectively blamed Massa for being slow. In an interview, Massa blamed the team for sending him out into traffic.

A good mix of cars failed to escape Q2. Both Haas drivers (the car’s looked rickety again this race) were slow, with Magnussen between them in 15^th. Hulkenberg, Button and Kvyat were all outqualified by their team mates. Not good for the Russian, in particular. Perez seems generally better than Hulkenberg at street circuits (the German has the edge at more flowing circuits, like Interlagos).

Excitement in Q3! No, really. Hamilton beat Rosberg, which is good for the title race. For a while, after Hamilton buggered up his initial run, he was 3^rd, behind Rosberg and Verstappen. The Dutchman ended up being outpaced by Ricciardo (not by a huge margin), with the Red Bulls on the second row of the grid. Ferrari were unimpressive, both cars on row three, with Vettel, surprisingly, behind Raikkonen.

Bottas was 7^th, which isn’t bad considering this isn’t really a Williams circuit. Next is Sainz, Perez, and Alonso.

The initial bets that sprung to mind were:

Red Bull top score.

Safety car.

Sainz top 6.

Lay Massa points.

Red Bull are just 6 to top score. That seems bloody tight to me given the pace advantage for Mercedes and top scoring means either Red Bull need to win or have a Mercedes fail to finish.

A Safety Car is 2.25. Checking from 2011 onwards reveals a very low chance of a safety car, so decided against this.

Sainz is 3.25 to be top 6. That requires him to make up two places. I think he’s got the potential to beat Bottas outright, but the extra place requires some cocking up ahead of him. Eminently possible, not sure if it’ll happen. Checking the four races so far reveals he’s had one DNF and gone backwards in the other three races, which doesn’t engender confidence. On the other hand, if he goes backward again that’s advantage Alonso/Perez…

There’s only a tiny sum to lay at 4.1 for Massa getting points, so not much to tip there.

So, time to idly browse the market and see what emerges.

Alonso, top 6, 4.33

Gutierrez, not to be classifed, 2.75

Raikkonen/Vettel, not to be classified, 5.5

Ricciardo, race leader after lap 1, 8

The Alonso bet came to mind because I have confidence Williams will bugger up strategy, and all the cars ahead of the Spaniard have a habit of going backwards. He’s very reliable (sometimes the car isn’t, but those ahead, particularly the Ferraris, have worse records) and quick.

Gutierrez has a 50% finishing record. Not really his fault, on the first occasion he was hit by Alonso, on the second (I think) his car stopped working.

Ferrari have 3 DNFs out of a possible 8, two for Vettel. Starting where they do, there’s also the opportunity for lap 1 shenanigans to occur. I think a pair of them were reliability issues, the other was when Kvyat auditioned for a seat at Toro Rosso.

Starting 3^rd isn’t so bad. Clean side of the track (although that’s not as big an advantage in Spain as the track isn’t as dirty off-line), and possible to get a run on the pole-sitter, who may well be distracted by Rosberg. If Ricciardo did get past at the start I think he’d have a strong chance of retaining the lead throughout the first lap.

Of those, the Ferrari and Ricciardo bets seem the most tempting. I rate Alonso highly, but his car isn’t the quickest or most reliable so I’m not sure he’ll climb all the way to 6^th. Gutierrez has a decent chance of failing to finish, but the odds compared to the Ferraris seem a bit short.

So, tips [Ladbrokes]:

Ricciardo, lead lap 1, 8

Raikkonen/Vettel, not to be classified, 5.5

As per usual a single stake will be shared between Raikkonen and Vettel, so it counts as a single tip in the records.

Let’s hope Ricciardo gallops off the line and the Ferraris smash into each other at turn 1. It’s been a pretty horrendous season so far, (mostly ill-judgement but with a small slice of bad luck too), so a change in fortune would go down nicely.

Morris Dancer