Australia: pre-qualifying

From what I could glean about P1 and P2, nothing too significant occurred. It appears P2 was soggy and Rosberg had a minor crash, and that’s about it. Channel 4 doesn’t appear to have its online act together (fortunately, the BBC still provides the practice results).

The most important new thing about qualifying is the drastic change to the format. It’s still three session, but from Q1 we’ll lose 7 cars, from Q2 we’ll also lose 7 cars, meaning just 8 will participate in Q3.

The eliminations will not happen at (or just after) the chequered flag. Instead, the slowest driver every 90 seconds (a few minutes into each session) will go, even if they’re on a hot lap (excepting the final exclusion who can reach the chequered flag, if on a flying lap).

As you’ll have noticed, this means the pole position shoot-out will reduced from 10 cars to 2. It also means if someone buggers up one lap, they may not get a second chance.

From the limited data, Alonso’s look a possible points scorer, Hulkenberg may reach the top 6, and Toro Rosso are looking pretty racey too. Ferrari’s pace relative to Mercedes is still unknown, though I suspect Hamilton will (boringly) get pole.

I can’t tip this, because there isn’t enough liquidity, but if you’re quick or bet with very small stakes, I’d back the 2.5 on Betfair for Hulkenberg to be top 8 (reach Q3). Because of the diminutive liquidity, this won’t count either way as far as the records go.

Looking ahead to the race, two early bets (Ladbrokes) that caught my eye were Hulkenberg to be top 6 at 2.75, and Raikkonen not to be classified at 5 (can’t explain the latter, just gut instinct). Can’t advocate backing either at this stage, though.

Anyway, with any luck I’ll wake up in time to listen to the radio and see how well, or badly, the new qualifying format goes. And then I’ll see what’s worth backing for the race.


Morris Dancer

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