Mexico: pre-race

Button was not able to get out for qualifying due to a signal problem, so will start last. Ferrari did good work to resolve an exhaust problem for Raikkonen.

In Q1, as well as losing Button, we saw the departure of Alonso, Nasr, Rossi and Stevens.

The last few minutes of Q2 saw raindrops coming down. Sainz was the fastest man to leave at this stage (it was tight at the lower end of the top 10), with Grosjean and Maldonado both failing to reach the next session. Ericsson was next, and Raikkonen slowest, due to his issues (detailed below).

Raikkonen may well get a 5 place grid penalty should he change his gearbox. He suffered a brake issue during Q2 [although there are reports he just didn’t bother due to his grid penalty], as well as the problem he had in practice. He pitted in Q2 after going out on medium tyres, rather than the faster softs. Bloody odd to just not set the fastest time possible, if that is what happened [possible the car just wasn’t as good as it should be, due to issues mentioned already]. After his penalty, he starts 18th.

Q3 saw Rosberg get another pole, with Hamilton 2nd (the German was faster throughout qualifying). Vettel and Kvyat form the next row, then Ricciardo and Bottas. Massa and Verstappen form row four, Perez and Hulkenberg finish off the top 10.

Initial betting thoughts:
Nasr points
Hulkenberg Not To Be Classified
Grosjean Not To Be Classified
Kvyat top 6
Kvyat podium
Bottas podium
Lay Rosberg podium
Safety Car
Lotus double score (Mercedes engine will help on the straights)
Hamilton to lead lap 1
Lay Rosberg lead lap 1

After leaving it overnight so the markets could awaken, the points odds on Nasr were 4.33 with Ladbrokes and 4.7 with Betfair, which is interesting. I expect the race to have a fair rate of attrition, and Nasr's a decent, steady driver.

Grosjean was a mere 2.37 Not To Be Classified, which is too short. Hulkenberg is 3.25. Given his recent difficulties and starting mid-grid (nice place for a crash) that may be worth considering.

Kvyat is 1.4 to be top 6. That’s too short.

The Russian is 3.75 for a podium. May be worth considering, it’s hard to say how things will play out in the race due to the newness of the track. Bottas is a whopping 8 for a podium. In Q3 he was half a tenth off 5th-placed Ricciardo, whose odds are 3.5. I think that may be value.

Rosberg has a lay value of 1.3 for the podium. Not convinced by that.

A safety car is just 1.33. Whilst I think one likely, the odds do not appeal.

Lotus are 5 for a double points finish. They’re close to the points, although reliability on both the mechanical and driver front is a cause for concern.

Hamilton is 3.25 to lead lap 1, and Rosberg has a lay value of 1.7. I think the lay may be worth considering, as he could be passed off the line or during the long straight. On the other hand, the odds are a bit tight.

So, two exciting bets (both Betfair):
Nasr, points, 4.7 (hedged at 2.34)
Bottas, podium, 8.4 (hedged at 3)

Race start is 7pm, UK time.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Some interesting thoughts, Mr Dancer.

    Apologies for the brevity of this post but I am on a client site on a Sunday evening (and all weekend!)

    I'm much more optimistic about Hulkenberg than you are. I can see points here. Nasr too. Perez and Kyvat for a top 6.

    Rosberg each way for the win. I'm going to follow you in on Bottas for the laugh.

    Good luck to you (and to any other lurking punters)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Podium Finish – Valtteri Bottas @ 7/1 WIN
    Top 6 Finish – Daniil Kvyat @ 1/2 WIN
    Race Winner – Nico Rosberg @ 11/8 WIN

    Points Finish – Felipe Nasr @ 7/2 LOSE
    Top 6 Finish – Sergio Perez @ 21/10 LOSE

    Which is a 2.22x payday. Woohoo!

    ReplyDelete
  3. To be fair, congratulations on the Bottas tip. That was a great call on your part and I admit I was sceptical.

    Well done; kudos to you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry, missed all this until now.

    Thanks :)

    Hard to be objective with hindsight, but I think most of those bets, whilst sensible, would have odds too short to tempt me.

    Bottas was a nice bet but, as I'll explain in my soon-to-be-posted post-race piece, had about three different slices of luck. Not that I'm complaining.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree about the shortness of the odds but they were still good enough to result in enough for a nice meal up the coast with MrsM next weekend so I'm not complaining either!

    As I've said before on here, I bet to win but I also bet to have an interest in the race and individual performances that would otherwise be irrelevant. These bets and results provided all of that too.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Monaco: pre-race 2023

America: pre-race

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests