Abu Dhabi: pre-race
Well, qualifying did
not go quite to script. The grid is unexpected in a few ways, which
may hopefully create opportunity.
In Q1, the Manor
Marussias of Stevens and Merhi were at the back, but the other three
cars all had misfortune of one kind or another. Ericsson suffered a
reliability failure, Alonso could’ve reached Q2 but got a puncture
and Vettel/Ferrari simply believed the German’s lap was good
enough, didn’t go out again, and ended up 16th. Of
course, Vettel had to start from the back due to disqualification in
2012, and ended up on the podium (I think), so he may yet have a good
race.
In the second session,
Grosjean’s Lotus failed him, so he starts 15th. Ahead of
him as Nasr, Maldonado, Button and Verstappen, who qualified a tiny
margin behind his team mate and loses (10-9) the qualifying
head-to-head against Sainz, who I think is a bit overlooked.
Q3 was quite exciting
for a few reasons. After the initial run, Perez was ahead of
Raikkonen, in 3rd. Rosberg was ahead of Hamilton for pole,
but it was very tight. After the second runs, Hamilton got the top
spot only to lose it moments later. That’s six consecutive poles
for Rosberg, and he got this one by nearly four-tenths, which is a
huge margin.
Perez, alas, got pipped
by the Finn and starts 4th, but that’s still tasty and
Force India look in good shape. It’ll be an intriguing contest, as
Raikkonen was the only chap to escape Q1 on soft tyres, so he has an
extra fresh set of supersofts for the race (optimal strategy is
thought to be 2 stops, with 2 stints supersoft and 1 soft). Perez may
try and make what should be a dead cert 2 stop into a 1 stop (and
he’s achieved such things before).
Behind the Mexican are
Ricciardo and Bottas, as well as Hulkenberg, half a second back from
Perez (as Interlagos is a Hulkenberg circuit, I think Yas Marina is a
Perez playground). Massa is behind Hulkenberg, as are Kvyat and
Sainz.
I think Williams,
despite having good top speeds, may suffer with tyres. Red Bull and
Toro Rosso will not enjoy the straights. Mercedes and Force India
should have a nice day, and it’ll be interesting to see how
Raikkonen and Vettel do.
Only on one occasion
has the chap on pole converted that to victory, though that stat is
bedevilled by reliability misfortune, rather than reflecting the
characteristics of the circuit (passing is historically tricky, but
some cars this season are a cut above others).
Initial betting
thoughts were:
Vettel top 6
Lay Ricciardo top 6
Raikkonen podium
Perez podium
Button points
Hulkenberg top 6
For a podium, Raikkonen
was 1.61, and Perez 5. That seems a silly contrast to me. (1.75 and 3
on Betfair).
Vettel was an
unattractive 1.3 for top 6, Hulkenberg 2 and Bottas had a lay value
of 3. None tempt.
Button was 3 for
points, which is too short.
So, the Perez bet
looked interesting, but I’m not sure about it. Although, upon
checking, he was better than Raikkonen in Q1 and Q2. Hmm. Anyway, I
decided to idly browse the markets and see if anything leapt up at
me.
Grosjean, points, 2.37,
was the only thing that made me think. So, there’s that, Hulkenberg
at evens for top 6 (I know I said that didn’t tempt, but when
famished even cabbage begins to resemble food) and Perez at 5 for a
podium (I’d prefer that on Betfair to hedge but at the moment only
4.3 is available).
In the end, I opted for
a Perez podium at 5. I think the Ferraris and Force Indias are ahead
of the Williams and Red Bulls, which makes it a Perez-Raikkonen duel
(Hulkenberg is outmatched at Yas Marina by his team mate).
Morris Dancer
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