2015 Mid-season Review

It’s been a bit of an odd first half of a season. Counter-intuitively, I’m actually slightly ahead on every measure (going by race weekends to date). Qualifying and race days are all slightly green.

Given the first six races were red (often marginally, but still) that’s quite pleasing. I think I suffered a little misfortune early on, which turned results (that might’ve otherwise been green) red, although I judged some things wrong too.

The three races before Hungary were a delightful patch of sound judgement and good fortune which meant I got 7/8 bets correct, including the best race weekend since Monza 2009 (on a hedged basis). Hungary was a double red weekend, one bet failing due to ill judgement, the other to ill fortune.

Things feel like they’re on a fairly even keel now. Although the pattern’s been extreme, H1 2015 has followed the traditional route of me being rubbish early on and then starting to get things right around the middle of the year.



In performance terms, Mercedes has been dominant throughout. On the two occasions the team failed to win, one was partly down to strategic cock-up, the other due to a bad start and small driver errors. On pace, the Silver Arrows maintain an almost comical degree of superiority. Hamilton is a strong favourite to win the title, but Rosberg is close enough that it’s not a certainty.

Things are more interesting behind them, however.

Ferrari has generally been best of the rest, although on slippery high speed tracks the Williams probably has the edge over the Prancing Horse. I was quite surprised that Red Bull were so competitive in Hungary (but for the contact with Rosberg, Ricciardo may have won the race). It’ll be interesting to see if that was due to a performance improvement or simply the aerodynamic nature of the circuit lending itself to the car.

Force India didn’t upgrade until their B-spec car a race or two ago, but (certainly at power circuits) that seems a pretty handy improvement. I expect them to be in and around the points from now until the end of the season, though more aerodynamic tracks will see them struggle a little.

The Lotus can sometimes be very competitive. It’s hampered by slightly dodgy downforce, Maldonado’s occasional tendency to try and occupy the same co-ordinates in space and time as other objects, and terrible reliability. I think only McLaren is worse in that regard. At circuits with a narrow track/close barriers and/or bad weather, it may be worth backing the Lotus to fail.

Toro Rosso is having a good year, and both their drivers are very talented (although Verstappen cocking up in Monaco was understandable he compounded that mistake by refusing to acknowledge it was his fault, which it was). The car’s good, and I expect them to rack up more points. Reliability is a serious issue, though, and I don’t think they’ll be able to get 5th (hope not, anyway, for political reasons. The 5th spot gets a team into a decision-making seat, and Red Bull already have one).

McLaren’s season has been awful. They had a much better result in Hungary, which was a combination of multiple accidents ahead of them, a performance improvement and a trouble-free race (for once). At circuits where power matters more, they may well slip back. Passing Toro Rosso must be their aim, and Sauber should be the minimal objective in the Constructors’. There’s also speculation about both drivers, with Button linked to Williams if Bottas goes to Ferrari (or even presenting Top Gear), and Alonso sounding less than enthused (understandably so).

Sauber had a great start, with Nasr finishing well into the points, but since then they’ve never really looked like finishing ahead of anyone save Manor and McLaren. Manor should be a given, but Sauber’s aim has to be to stay ahead of McLaren. That’s possible, but difficult. If anything, the Sauber has seemed to be getting relatively slower as the season goes on.

Manor achieved much simply by making the grid. This year, alas, was always going to see them trundling round at the back. What they need to do is work hard on next year’s car, and try to make progress in 2016.

So, how will the second half of the season unfold?

I can’t see beyond a Mercedes victory, because the car has a clear performance advantage on every type of circuit. They may not win every race, but they’ll certainly have a chance everywhere. If Ferrari could make a substantial improvement that could make the title race very interesting but I don’t think that’s very likely.

The top three are likely to finish where they currently stand, although Red Bull were very impressive in Hungary, and that may worry Williams. Further down the field, I expect McLaren to pass Sauber but going further may be beyond them.

Vettel’s said he’ll try to make the impossible possible (win the title). I think that very unlikely, simply because his car isn’t as good as the Mercedes. But, there may be a joker in the pack.

From Spa (next race) the starts will change. Essentially, drivers have to do more of it themselves, rather than relying as much on engineers/technology. If Hamilton/Rosberg are rubbish and/or Vettel’s excellent in this regard, it could prove decisive. We saw at Hungary that the Ferrari, on paper slower than the Mercedes (and, in the race, perhaps slower than the Red Bull of Ricciardo as well) had little trouble retaining the lead.

Hard to say how much difference the change will make. The ability of a driver to find the best clutch bite point himself, and to start the fastest, will both be crucial, as will traction and engine performance (the latter two mattering already, of course).


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Hamilton seems very busy trying to score with A-list hotties over the summer. His last drive was error strewn. he may well take his eye off the ball long enough for another to pass him.

    Not that I would not trade places with him mind!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hmm. That's an interesting observation, and something I missed. I think he broke up with Scherzinger prior to the season start, which didn't affect him at all (unlike 2011's latter half when he went to pieces).

    Everyone has off days, but this may be due to off-track excursions, as it were.

    ReplyDelete
  3. the sidebard of shame summons us all....

    ReplyDelete
  4. ha..super unintentional typo even by my standards

    ReplyDelete
  5. The sidebard's tunes are hard to resist, 'tis true :p

    However, you did acquire potentially useful information from the media minstrel's music.

    ReplyDelete

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