2015 Mid-season Review
It’s been a bit of an
odd first half of a season. Counter-intuitively, I’m actually
slightly ahead on every measure (going by race weekends to date).
Qualifying and race days are all slightly green.
Given the first six
races were red (often marginally, but still) that’s quite pleasing.
I think I suffered a little misfortune early on, which turned results
(that might’ve otherwise been green) red, although I judged some
things wrong too.
The three races before
Hungary were a delightful patch of sound judgement and good fortune
which meant I got 7/8 bets correct, including the best race weekend
since Monza 2009 (on a hedged basis). Hungary was a double red
weekend, one bet failing due to ill judgement, the other to ill
fortune.
Things feel like
they’re on a fairly even keel now. Although the pattern’s been
extreme, H1 2015 has followed the traditional route of me being
rubbish early on and then starting to get things right around the
middle of the year.
In performance terms,
Mercedes has been dominant throughout. On the two occasions the team
failed to win, one was partly down to strategic cock-up, the other
due to a bad start and small driver errors. On pace, the Silver
Arrows maintain an almost comical degree of superiority. Hamilton is
a strong favourite to win the title, but Rosberg is close enough that
it’s not a certainty.
Things are more
interesting behind them, however.
Ferrari has generally
been best of the rest, although on slippery high speed tracks the
Williams probably has the edge over the Prancing Horse. I was quite
surprised that Red Bull were so competitive in Hungary (but for the
contact with Rosberg, Ricciardo may have won the race). It’ll be
interesting to see if that was due to a performance improvement or
simply the aerodynamic nature of the circuit lending itself to the
car.
Force India didn’t
upgrade until their B-spec car a race or two ago, but (certainly at
power circuits) that seems a pretty handy improvement. I expect them
to be in and around the points from now until the end of the season,
though more aerodynamic tracks will see them struggle a little.
The Lotus can sometimes
be very competitive. It’s hampered by slightly dodgy downforce,
Maldonado’s occasional tendency to try and occupy the same
co-ordinates in space and time as other objects, and terrible
reliability. I think only McLaren is worse in that regard. At
circuits with a narrow track/close barriers and/or bad weather, it
may be worth backing the Lotus to fail.
Toro Rosso is having a
good year, and both their drivers are very talented (although
Verstappen cocking up in Monaco was understandable he compounded that
mistake by refusing to acknowledge it was his fault, which it was).
The car’s good, and I expect them to rack up more points.
Reliability is a serious issue, though, and I don’t think they’ll
be able to get 5th (hope not, anyway, for political
reasons. The 5th spot gets a team into a decision-making
seat, and Red Bull already have one).
McLaren’s season has
been awful. They had a much better result in Hungary, which was a
combination of multiple accidents ahead of them, a performance
improvement and a trouble-free race (for once). At circuits where
power matters more, they may well slip back. Passing Toro Rosso must
be their aim, and Sauber should be the minimal objective in the
Constructors’. There’s also speculation about both drivers, with
Button linked to Williams if Bottas goes to Ferrari (or even
presenting Top Gear), and Alonso sounding less than enthused
(understandably so).
Sauber had a great
start, with Nasr finishing well into the points, but since then
they’ve never really looked like finishing ahead of anyone save
Manor and McLaren. Manor should be a given, but Sauber’s aim has to
be to stay ahead of McLaren. That’s possible, but difficult. If
anything, the Sauber has seemed to be getting relatively slower as
the season goes on.
Manor achieved much
simply by making the grid. This year, alas, was always going to see
them trundling round at the back. What they need to do is work hard
on next year’s car, and try to make progress in 2016.
So, how will the second
half of the season unfold?
I can’t see beyond a
Mercedes victory, because the car has a clear performance advantage
on every type of circuit. They may not win every race, but they’ll
certainly have a chance everywhere. If Ferrari could make a
substantial improvement that could make the title race very
interesting but I don’t think that’s very likely.
The top three are
likely to finish where they currently stand, although Red Bull were
very impressive in Hungary, and that may worry Williams. Further down
the field, I expect McLaren to pass Sauber but going further may be
beyond them.
Vettel’s said he’ll
try to make the impossible possible (win the title). I think that
very unlikely, simply because his car isn’t as good as the
Mercedes. But, there may be a joker in the pack.
From Spa (next race) the starts will change. Essentially, drivers have to do more of it themselves, rather than relying as much on engineers/technology. If Hamilton/Rosberg are rubbish and/or Vettel’s excellent in this regard, it could prove decisive. We saw at Hungary that the Ferrari, on paper slower than the Mercedes (and, in the race, perhaps slower than the Red Bull of Ricciardo as well) had little trouble retaining the lead.
Hard to say how much
difference the change will make. The ability of a driver to find the
best clutch bite point himself, and to start the fastest, will both
be crucial, as will traction and engine performance (the latter two
mattering already, of course).
Morris Dancer
Hamilton seems very busy trying to score with A-list hotties over the summer. His last drive was error strewn. he may well take his eye off the ball long enough for another to pass him.
ReplyDeleteNot that I would not trade places with him mind!
Hmm. That's an interesting observation, and something I missed. I think he broke up with Scherzinger prior to the season start, which didn't affect him at all (unlike 2011's latter half when he went to pieces).
ReplyDeleteEveryone has off days, but this may be due to off-track excursions, as it were.
the sidebard of shame summons us all....
ReplyDeleteha..super unintentional typo even by my standards
ReplyDeleteThe sidebard's tunes are hard to resist, 'tis true :p
ReplyDeleteHowever, you did acquire potentially useful information from the media minstrel's music.