Hungary: pre-race

The bet didn’t come off due to a straightforward, albeit massive, misjudgement on my part. I substantially underestimated the aerodynamic impact on relative performance, with both Toro Rosso and Red Bull ahead of Force India. (Williams did poorly as well, although that didn’t affect the bet). I almost fluked a green result by Lotus’ lacklustre pace, but Grosjean just about managed to knock Hulkenberg down to 11th.

In the first session both Manors departed the stage, as did both Saubers. Button was unable to claw his way out, but this was due to a failure in electrical energy, and the gap to Q2 was less than the power deficit he suffered. On pace he would’ve made it.

Alonso was first to leave the second session when his car’s engine went on strike. Though he gamely pushed it back to the pits (it came to a stop at the pit entry) the mechanics were unable to mend the problem and he starts 15th. Sainz, Perez and Maldonado were outshone by their team mates, and Hulkenberg failed by two-hundredths of a second to reach the top 10.

Hamilton’s crushing dominance to get pole seemed inevitable, and Rosberg once again lines up alongside him. Surprisingly, Vettel was less than two-tenths behind Rosberg, and Ricciardo was less than half a tenth behind his erstwhile team mate. I do wonder if Rosberg could be vulnerable. Raikkonen and Bottas make the third row Finnish territory, followed by Kvyat and Massa, with Verstappen and Grosjean finishing off the top 10.

It’ll be a little cooler on race day which should relatively disadvantage the Ferrari, which especially likes hot weather. As mentioned in my pre-qualifying piece, I’ve tipped No Safety Car at 1.75 with Betfair.

Weather is expected to be dry.

Bets that sprung to mind based on the grid:
Ricciardo podium
Red Bull double score
Force India double score
Button/Alonso not to be classified (requires reliability failure, crashing unlikely)
Massa top 6

Ricciardo was 3.5 for a podium with Ladbrokes and 4.1 with Betfair. That’s intriguing, so I’ll consider it properly later.

Both Red Bulls to score is 1.5. Given reliability woe, I’m unsure it’s value. On pace, I think it’s near certain.

Force India are 3.75 to double score. I think the Lotus might suffer a bit (comparable to the Force India on pace, but less reliable) and I could see the Toro Rossos going backwards.

Button is 1.83 and Alonso evens not to be classified. That’s a little too short.

Massa is 2.25 with Ladbrokes and 2.5 with Betfair to be top 6. Whilst I think he has a good shot at it, those odds are too short to appeal.

After idly perusing the markets for anything that jumps out I found nothing else that piqued my interest (with the minor exception of Ricciardo being 4.5 to be winner without the Big Two [Hamilton/Rosberg], but I prefer the podium market because it’ll have more money available for hedging).

The Red Bull really does appear to have taken a step forward. Ricciardo was great here last year (aided by some fortune but also some excellent passing on his part). Vettel has never really shone here. Hmm. It’s tempting, but I could realistically see the final podium spot falling to any of Vettel, Ricciardo and Raikkonen. So, no bet there.

Perez was a long way back from Hulkenberg’s time. I’m not confident he’ll score, so I’m just going to stick with the one previously mentioned bet:
No Safety Car, 1.75 at Betfair [NB offered earlier today, current odds are less than this]

I generally prefer longer odds bets, but nothing really catches my eye.

I think Hamilton will win easily, but we could see a more competitive battle throughout the rest of the points positions (after Rosberg).


Morris Dancer

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