Hungary: pre-race
The bet didn’t come
off due to a straightforward, albeit massive, misjudgement on my
part. I substantially underestimated the aerodynamic impact on
relative performance, with both Toro Rosso and Red Bull ahead of
Force India. (Williams did poorly as well, although that didn’t
affect the bet). I almost fluked a green result by Lotus’
lacklustre pace, but Grosjean just about managed to knock Hulkenberg
down to 11th.
In the first session
both Manors departed the stage, as did both Saubers. Button was
unable to claw his way out, but this was due to a failure in
electrical energy, and the gap to Q2 was less than the power deficit
he suffered. On pace he would’ve made it.
Alonso was first to
leave the second session when his car’s engine went on strike.
Though he gamely pushed it back to the pits (it came to a stop at the
pit entry) the mechanics were unable to mend the problem and he
starts 15th. Sainz, Perez and Maldonado were outshone by
their team mates, and Hulkenberg failed by two-hundredths of a second
to reach the top 10.
Hamilton’s crushing
dominance to get pole seemed inevitable, and Rosberg once again lines
up alongside him. Surprisingly, Vettel was less than two-tenths
behind Rosberg, and Ricciardo was less than half a tenth behind his
erstwhile team mate. I do wonder if Rosberg could be vulnerable.
Raikkonen and Bottas make the third row Finnish territory, followed
by Kvyat and Massa, with Verstappen and Grosjean finishing off the
top 10.
It’ll be a little
cooler on race day which should relatively disadvantage the Ferrari,
which especially likes hot weather. As mentioned in my pre-qualifying
piece, I’ve tipped No Safety Car at 1.75 with Betfair.
Weather is expected to
be dry.
Bets that sprung to
mind based on the grid:
Ricciardo podium
Red Bull double score
Force India double
score
Button/Alonso not to be
classified (requires reliability failure, crashing unlikely)
Massa top 6
Ricciardo was 3.5 for a
podium with Ladbrokes and 4.1 with Betfair. That’s intriguing, so
I’ll consider it properly later.
Both Red Bulls to score
is 1.5. Given reliability woe, I’m unsure it’s value. On pace, I
think it’s near certain.
Force India are 3.75 to
double score. I think the Lotus might suffer a bit (comparable to the
Force India on pace, but less reliable) and I could see the Toro
Rossos going backwards.
Button is 1.83 and
Alonso evens not to be classified. That’s a little too short.
Massa is 2.25 with
Ladbrokes and 2.5 with Betfair to be top 6. Whilst I think he has a
good shot at it, those odds are too short to appeal.
After idly perusing the
markets for anything that jumps out I found nothing else that piqued
my interest (with the minor exception of Ricciardo being 4.5 to be
winner without the Big Two [Hamilton/Rosberg], but I prefer the
podium market because it’ll have more money available for hedging).
The Red Bull really
does appear to have taken a step forward. Ricciardo was great here
last year (aided by some fortune but also some excellent passing on
his part). Vettel has never really shone here. Hmm. It’s tempting,
but I could realistically see the final podium spot falling to any of
Vettel, Ricciardo and Raikkonen. So, no bet there.
Perez was a long way
back from Hulkenberg’s time. I’m not confident he’ll score, so
I’m just going to stick with the one previously mentioned bet:
No Safety Car, 1.75 at
Betfair [NB offered earlier today, current odds are less than this]
I generally prefer
longer odds bets, but nothing really catches my eye.
I think Hamilton will
win easily, but we could see a more competitive battle throughout the
rest of the points positions (after Rosberg).
Morris Dancer
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