Hungary: pre-qualifying
In the time since the
last race, Jules Bianchi has sadly passed away. The young driver was
critically injured in the last Japanese Grand Prix when he crashed
into a recovery vehicle trying to move Sutil’s stricken Sauber. The
serious brain injury sustained meant he was in a coma until he passed
away recently.
Bianchi was talked of
as a serious talent with a strong prospect of ending up at Ferrari.
He also scored the only points Manor (then Marussia) have ever had,
in Monaco 2014, which may have proved vital to the team making it to
2015.
His death is the first
of its kind since Senna, over two decades ago. F1 is far, far safer
than it was in the past but it will never be an entirely safe sport.
Nevertheless, efforts to protect drivers (and others) must not
relent.
Since Hungary there’s
much speculation that Bottas will replace Raikkonen next year. I like
both Finns, but would’ve preferred Hulkenberg to get the seat. It’s
possible the German will go to Williams (if Bottas goes to Ferrari)
but I’ve also heard of Nasr as a potential Williams driver [update: Sauber have confirmed both drivers will remain with them next year]. If
Hulkenberg can’t get a better seat now then he may well leave the
sport, which would be a shame as he’s a top chap and a very good
driver. It may also be indicative of the crackers approach to finance
affecting half, or more, of the grid.
The tyres this weekend
are medium and soft.
In P1 Hamilton led his
team mate by a tenth, with Raikkonen over half a second down the
road. Ricciardo and Kvyat posted almost identical times, and Vettel
was about three-tenths back (worth noting Vettel’s never actually
won at this circuit, which is unusual). Sainz, Perez, Bottas and
Verstappen rounded out the top 10.
This session was
notable for a sizeable crash that Perez suffered due to a suspension
element breaking. This ended up with his car upside down, although he
was entirely alright, thankfully. However, the lack of certainty over
what had precisely broken led the team to avoid P2 altogether.
In the second practice
session, Hamilton was fastest again, albeit over Kvyat (by four
tenths), with Ricciardo and Rosberg next. Raikkonen was half a second
back (again), with a sizeable gap to Sainz, who was less than a tenth
ahead of Vettel. Alonso, Bottas and Massa complete the top 10.
Given Hamilton’s
record I think he may ace this weekend. However, Vettel’s slightly
dodgy record and the importance of aerodynamics [relatively harmful
for Williams in their fight with Ferrari] might mean Raikkonen has a
shot at the podium.
Before P3, it emerged
the Force India wishbone was to blame for the suspension failure. The
team believed they’d solved the problem for the final practice
session, which hopefully will prove to be the case.
Surprisingly, on the
soft tyres Alonso was three-tenths off of Hulkenberg but six-tenths
faster than Perez. In P3 commentary it was suggested by Ben Edwards
that Renault’s decision to buy back Lotus, or not, will be taken
soon, perhaps in the next week or two. The Force India and McLaren
soft tyre laps were done much earlier than other teams, so their
times may be a little slower due to track evolution. Raikkonen had a
water leak which prevented him doing a qualifying simulation run.
Bottas’ qualifying simulation was slowed by traffic, and
Ricciardo’s time was compromised by a mistake in the second sector.
P3 had Hamilton fastest
but less than a tenth ahead of his team mate. Vettel was next but
eight-tenths down the road. Kvyat was four-tenths further back,
followed by Sainz, Hulkenberg and Verstappen. Alonso Ricciardo and
Grosjean round out the top 10.
Early bets that came to
mind were:
Alonso Q3
Hulkenberg Q3
Really quite surprised,
but McLaren do appear to have taken a step forward. Alonso I think
will end up 9-12th. Raikkonen, the Williams and Ricciardo
could all have beaten his time, probably, but against that is that he
set it early and track evolution means he’s faster than the time
indicates. 2.1 for top 3 on Betfair is ridiculously short. 4 would
tempt me a lot, 3 would be tricky, but barely evens does not appeal.
Hulkenberg, provided
the car stays together, seems very likely to reach Q3. I was greatly
surprised 1.8 was available, and backed it immediately.
I happened to see that
No Safety Car was 1.75 on Betfair. Even though it’s early, I’ve
backed that. Hungary is the circuit least likely to see one. Although
it’s short odds, it seems value (the only doubt is that poor
reliability from some teams could see a car become stranded in an
area that necessitates a safety car. However, Betfair does not count
a Virtual Safety Car, which is helpful).
So, two tips (both
Betfair, but not hedged):
Hulkenberg to reach Q3
at 1.8
No Safety Car at 1.75
I’ll put up the
pre-race piece as usual, whether or not I offer a second race tip
remains to be seen.
Morris Dancer
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