Bahrain: post-race analysis
It wasn’t a classic.
Whilst it was red, it was to the tune (using my £10 comparison stake
approach) of a whole 50 pence. So, every race has been red, but I’ve
got 3/7 bets this season right, and if I get a 2/1 winner next time
it’ll push me green overall. It’s a little odd, really.
Button did not start,
when his car refused to even make the hundred yards he made in
qualifying. I don’t know if the DNS counts as the first constructor
retirement, and Ladbrokes won’t let me log-in, so when they slay
their gremlins I’ll find out and report back (as per Mr. M’s
cunning tips, I backed Toro Rosso [winner if Button doesn’t count]
and Red Bull to fail first). Update:
on checking, Ladbrokes scored it a winner, so kudos to fair play for
that. Yet again, Mr. M’s tips (including two losers on
Hulkenberg points and Grosjean top 6) proved more profitable than me.
Massa failed to get
away for the formation lap, but was able to manage a pit lane start.
Sainz got a really weird penalty (5s), apparently for exceeding the
maximum time permitted on the reconnaissance lap.
After the first few
corners I was hopeful. Hamilton led ahead of Vettel and Raikkonen.
Unfortunately, Rosberg remembered what this racing business is about,
and his car was, during the first stint, simply faster than the
Ferrari. He passed Raikkonen relatively easily, and then passed
Vettel, despite the difficulty of running in turbulent air (the key
was the Mercedes being much faster on the straight than the Ferrari,
which seemed better in the corners).
Then we got an
interesting strategy shift. The top 3 went onto soft tyres for the
second stint, but, counter-intuitively, Raikkonen went medium. And he
matched the pace of Hamilton (who was on the allegedly far faster
soft tyre) and narrowed the gap to Rosberg and Vettel.
However, Ferrari did
leave Raikkonen out too long on the medium tyre, which probably cost
him circa 6s. It may have ended up costing him the win. That said,
the soft tyre on his final stint did enable him to catch and pass
Rosberg and get close(ish) to Hamilton.
What of Vettel? He
pitted a third time, for a new nose. He emerged very close behind
Bottas, but over a dozen or so laps simply couldn’t pass the Finn.
Good for Bottas, who reportedly had the first race of the year
without back pain. Perhaps it wasn’t a coincidence that it was also
the first race in which he out-qualified his team mate.
Vettel seemed weirdly
out of sorts. He went wide a few times, locked his brakes rather a
lot and never really looked comfortable.
Ricciardo got 6th,
beating Grosjean to 7th, which I found slightly
surprising. Still, fairly solid for Lotus. Ricciardo’s engine
exploded as he crossed the line.
Perez snagged 8th,
impressive, and a cut above Hulkenberg’s disappointing 13th
(perhaps due to strategy?). Kvyat recovered from a lacklustre
qualifying for 9th, and Massa held on for the final point.
However, Alonso was
11th, and given this is just a week after China that’s
pretty good. I think McLaren for points in Spain could be
interesting. They need to unlock more horsepower and, perhaps even
more importantly, sort out the reliability which struck Button four
times this weekend and gave him a DNS.
Alonso was ahead of
Nasr, Hulkenberg, Ericsson, Maldonado (who had an issue which caused
a long pit stop) and the Manor Marussias.
It was a bit
disappointing in terms of the race, the title and the betting. The
Mercedes was just a little bit ahead of the Ferrari, and, crucially,
faster on the straight. Both cars suffered a late problem with
braking, which may have cost Rosberg 2nd, but Hamilton’s
lead was sufficient for him to retain the victory.
Unless Ferrari make a
great leap forward after the fly-aways, this season is gone for them.
However, for next year they could be set fair. James Allison is
probably the best designer, Vettel and Raikkonen (if the Finn stays)
are a great partnership and Arrivabene seems like a serious team
principal.
Drivers:
Hamilton 93
Rosberg 66
Vettel 65
Raikkonen 42
Looking good for
Hamilton.
Incidentally, something
I forgot to mention before is that Maldonado may be in trouble. His
sponsorship comes from PDVSA, a big Venezuelan firm. However, with
the Venezuelan economy about to explode and the IMF preparing the
dustpan and brush, this funding may either fail to be renewed or
disappear. If so, this will imperil Maldonado’s position in F1 next
year. So, consider this when/if driver markets appear (I’ll also be
watching for the odds on Kvyat leaving Red Bull and, perhaps,
Verstappen taking his place [Hulkenberg possible if they want to give
Verstappen another year in the theoretically junior team]).
Betting-wise, I’m
3/7, and scarcely one a half stakes red. Which is a bit weird. I’ve
failed at every race this season, but ¾ of those have been pocket
money. I may try just offering the one tip per race, and see if that
works (still a bit irked by Verstappen’s engine dying in China,
guaranteeing a late safety car).
The next race is Spain
in three weeks’ time, just after the excitement of the General
Election.
Morris Dancer
A repost of my comment and book from the previous post
ReplyDelete----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well that went a lot better than it might have.
My Grosjean bet came off partially and I was one place off both parts paying out.
Obviously only one of the Constructors bets would come good and in fact both cars failed just to reinforce the biggest win :)
We will never mention my Hulkenburg idea again in polite company.
All in all, a profit of 70% which has cheered me up immeasurably!
The details of the bets:
Points Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 - 1 Point LOSE
Points Finish – Felipe Nasr @ 11/10 - 1 Point LOSE
Top 6 Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 3/1 - 1 Point LOSE
Points Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 2/5 - 2 Points WIN
First Constructor Retirement – Red Bull @ 6/1 - 2 Points LOSE
First Constructor Retirement – Toro Rosso @ 7/1 - 2 Points WIN
Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel @ 5/2 - 2 Points LOSE
Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton @ 4/9 - 1 Point WIN
Aye, you've made a good start to the season. I put a fiver on both the teams for first retirement, so that was nice.
ReplyDeleteHard to feel too irritated given the tiny red margins for most of the races (the worst was only down one stake, and since then I've, net, lost half a stake). It's almost like a prologue before the season starts properly.
Significant shifts to look out for in Spain:
McLaren points, possibly top 6 [think this might happen]
Ferrari closing on Mercedes [possible but could go the other way]
I forget which race, but Force India are getting a B-spec car (which should be a lot faster). That may shove them up the grid a fair way.
I will be at the Spain race (emergencies excepted).
ReplyDeleteIf any lurkers here will be too then please let me know and we can meet up.
And I will be at a private party on Wednesday with Niki Lauda as the guest of honour. Woohoo!
Mr. M, Mr. Sandpit [from the main site] may be in attendance as well.
ReplyDeleteHope you have a nice time, and if you learn any inside info, do let me know on the QT.