Australia: post-race analysis

Not a classic race, although there were a few incidents of interest. The bet failed, but not by miles. So, a red start to 2015. Always a bit tricky at the start, though.

Huge kudos to Mr. M, whose comment-based tips (especially Nasr to be top 6) worked very nicely. And there was I expressing my lack of confidence, and being wronger than the Thirteenth Earl of Wrongcaster.

Bottas failed to start due to his bad back, Kvyat and Magnussen didn’t start because of mechanical issues, and the Manor Marussias, as we knew, didn’t start either.

I woke up just in time for the early start, which was notable for minor contact between the Ferraris causing Raikkonen to slide down the order, and leading to Maldonado crashing out on the first lap.

This prompted a lap 1 safety car. Grosjean pitted and retired, and when the racing resumed the top four remained in starting order, but Nasr had climbed well up the running order and Raikkonen had lost several places.

Nasr led a train of Ricciardo, Sainz (I think) and Raikkonen. Slowly, Raikkonen worked his way through those ahead of him, but not nearly as quickly as might have been expected.

Most cars one-stopped. Massa pitted prior to Vettel and was slowed by having Ricciardo ahead of him. When Ricciardo pitted, Vettel did likewise, and emerged ahead of Massa fairly comfortably.

A second pit stop for Raikkonen ended before he completed another lap, as the rear left was attached incorrectly and he had to stop (he’ll get a 10 second stop and go penalty in Malaysia, probably, for an unsafe release). Verstappen, who had been running in the points, retired due to engine difficulties (NB Ricciardo also got through a Renault engine earlier this weekend, and there’s only 4 for the whole season. Those two have 3 engines for 19 races).

The top four were all fairly comfortable, running around without much trouble. Hamilton was a small distance ahead of Rosberg, who was a long way ahead of Vettel, followed fairly closely by Massa.

Nasr was about a minute behind his compatriot, then came Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Ericsson, Sainz and Perez.

Just 11 cars finished, and Button was the only man to avoid those pesky points. Must be very disheartening for him, as it was a good opportunity to get something despite the dreadful car.

But, for every sorrow there’s joy, and Sauber recovered from a horrendous off-track situation to enjoy on-track glory with a great performance from Nasr, solid stuff from Ericsson and 14 points. The Sauber looks pretty good. It won’t (normally) compete for a podium place, but it will be in good shape for points at most races.

Despite the red bet, I think a lot of useful stuff was learnt from a less than stellar race.

First off, following cars is harder. Raikkonen was faster than Ricciardo and Nasr by some distance but struggled to pass. This’ll put a premium on position and strategy, and we’ll see less overtaking than last year. It may advantage Rosberg, who last year qualified better than Hamilton (NB he was beaten by Hamilton in 2014 Australian qualifying, so don’t take this weekend as a sign that he’s necessarily lost his qualifying edge).

The Ferrari engine is mighty, maybe faster than the Mercedes. The Renault is clearly worst [excepting the woe, doom and despair of Honda]. At Monza the Renaults will get murdered. On the other hand, Renault reportedly has a technical genius now working for them and deliberately kept many development tokens so he could enhance the engine in-season. But, for now, it’s bad.

There were several pit stop issues, which makes me wonder if there’s a problem with the nuts/guns or suchlike. Not useful for betting, but worth knowing.

The Sauber is tasty. The Force India is not.

I’d put the running order, after Mercedes as:

Ferrari

Williams

Then an enormous gap to:

Sauber/Red Bull

Toro Rosso

Force India

McLaren

Manor Marussia are almost certainly last, Lotus are hard to assess due to both cars exiting early on. I think Ferrari is faster than Williams because when Vettel trailed Massa, he could stay, for many laps, very close behind. When Massa trailed Vettel, he couldn’t close to within DRS range or even within 2s. That might be a Massa/Vettel issue rather than the cars, but my gut feeling is the Ferrari is the best of the rest.

Must say I was a bit unimpressed with the Bottas situation on Ladbrokes. I put down a very small sum, to see if it’d be made null and void if he failed to race. This remained unsettled until after the race, when it was made null and void and my stake was returned to me. But it was known for hours before the race that he wasn’t participating, and that’s the only basis for rendering it null and void. However, useful to know for the future that the rule appears to be if a driver doesn’t start, the Not To Be Classified market won’t pay out.

After the first race the Constructors has this somewhat surprising shape:

Mercedes 43

Ferrari 15

Sauber 14

Williams 12

Red Bull 8

Force India 7

Toro Rosso 2

McLaren/Manor/Lotus 0

Sauber and Force India will be delighted, especially Sauber. Their nightmare start has turned into a dream first race. They stand little chance against the top three, but they might actually be in contention for 4^th. It’d be a surprise, but they were competitive today (although Kvyat’s absence and Verstappen’s DNF do muddy the waters).

In Malaysia, engine power will, I think, matter more than in Australia. That’s bad news for Red Bull and Toro Rosso, but good for Ferrari, and perhaps Sauber.

Pre-season, I made some small stakes bets (and tips). The one on Alonso winning in Australia was comically awful, but the others are still in reasonable shape. I tipped Hamilton break the wins in a season record (he needs 14) at 9, and Mercedes to win every race at 17 (both Ladbrokes). They’ve fallen to 5 and 4 respectively. I think the odds on Mercedes are too short now. Reliability, bad luck, bad weather, etc all mean I still think it’s fairly unlikely. However, 5 for Hamilton win 13/19 remaining races is perhaps worth considering. Not sure if I’d back it, and quite content with a small sum at 9.

Malaysia is in a fortnight.

But if you’re stuck for things to do before then, why not buy Prey: Seven Tales ofBeastly Terror? It’s a horror anthology put together by seven authors (including me), with all proceeds going to animal charity (WWF).

Morris Dancer