The 2014 mid-season review
Unlike
previous years I’m just doing the one review. It’ll be mostly
racing, with a bit on betting at the end.
We’re 11
races into a possible 19 (Russia seems likely to go ahead but could
yet be suspended, delayed or abandoned before October depending how
the situation in Ukraine develops). Because of the mentally
challenged decision by F1 bigwigs, the final race (Abu Dhabi) will be
worth double points (this may end up determining who wins the title).
So far the
majority of races have been hugely enjoyable. Racing has been tight
with engine variabilities and tyre degradation combining to provide
lots of on-track action, and we’ve had a couple of real classics
(including, bizarrely, Bahrain).
Throughout
the season, Mercedes has been the team to beat. Sportingly, they’ve
let their drivers race (ignored team order in Hungary aside). Even
more sportingly, they’ve had their cars break down on several
occasions to give the other teams a chance.
The title
began as a private duel between old sparring partners Hamilton and
Rosberg and I feel it’ll end the same way. Rosberg has been
serially underestimated during his career, and still is. Whilst
Hamilton is slight favourite, I feel Rosberg has a very realistic
chance of taking the title.
Hamilton
has had the lion’s share of bad luck, but perhaps by less of a
margin than the consensus would have us believe. Whether it’s down
to driving style or sheer bad luck, the Briton is further along with
most components as well, meaning that when they next fail he’s
nearer than Rosberg to exceeding the limit and receiving grid
penalties. Recent drives have shown he can cut through the field with
relative ease, but such occasions will still give an advantage to
Rosberg in an extremely close title fight.
Williams
started off with great potential but never seemed to be able to
deliver in the races. Compared to recent seasons (the 2012 Maldonado
win aside) it was still fantastic, but in the last few races Bottas
got three podium finishes in a row, and the team now aspires to
displace Red Bull from second. That’s not impossible, but it will
be challenging. If they fail to beat Ferrari to claim third that
should be considered a failure, but given how bad they were in 2013
the whole season will do wonders for Williams’ morale. It’s also
rather nice to see them doing well.
Red Bull
found themselves in a position to which they are not accustomed:
getting their arse kicked like a Frenchman at Agincourt. In testing, their car broke down at the drop of a hat and seemed well off the
pace. It’s recovered significantly since then. In fact, I’d argue
it has the most downforce and best chassis of any car (Mercedes close
in second). However, its power is weak. At various tracks (perhaps
most notably Canada, where Vettel was trapped behind Hulkenberg for
many laps) this has cost them a lot. Ricciardo’s driven very well,
but Vettel’s misfortune (unlike Hamilton’s) has been seriously
overlooked. He’s suffered almost all reliability failures as well
as on-track misfortune (he could have won in Canada, and it was bad
luck more than anything else he didn’t). I expect them to cling
onto second, but Williams won’t make it easy for them.
The
Ferrari’s a dog, again. The engine’s perhaps even worse than the
Renault, and if it weren’t for Alonso’s stellar performances the
prancing horse would be at the knacker’s yard already. They’ll
really struggle to hold onto third. They also have a serious problem,
in that the work they can do to improve the engine each season will
decline (ie if they don’t fix it for 2015 they’ll have less
technical freedom and capacity to do so from 2015 to 2016). One
suspects they’ve got Bianchi’s number ready.
McLaren is
a bit weird. They scored (after Ricciardo’s disqualification) a
double podium in Australia, and since then have slid backwards. They
seem to have recovered somewhat, but are tussling with Force India to
avoid being the worst Mercedes-powered team. Given the substantially
greater resources of McLaren, that’s not good enough, especially
after an awful 2013. Button may well end up getting axed.
Force
India have been having a cracking season. First podium for a few
years, and Hulkenberg’s been the second most consistent driver
(after Alonso, the only man to score points at every race this year).
The car’s reliable, and fast. It’s been surpassed by Williams and
is in a tight battle with McLaren. Upgrades will probably dictate
who’ll win that duel. Force India also benefits from a decent
driver lineup (although I rank Hulkenberg above Perez).
Toro Rosso
are slightly in a No Man’s Land. Whereas Mercedes are having a
private duel for the title, Williams, Red Bull and Ferrari are
battling for second, third and fourth, and Force India/McLaren are
tussling for fifth and sixth, Toro Rosso is a little way ahead of
Lotus but miles behind McLaren and Force India. The car is reasonable
in pace terms but has been pretty lacklustre when it comes to
reliability. Vergne’s been driving well, but it’s Kvyat, the
young Russian newcomer, who has garnered the most headlines. He’s
really hit the ground running and it’s not hard to foresee him
ending up in a faster team sooner rather than later.
I wonder
how Maldonado feels about leaving Williams for Lotus now. The Enstone
team seems highly likely to get eighth, ahead as they are of Marussia
and Sauber but nine points adrift of Toro Rosso. The pace has been
missing for all but a handful of races and reliability, especially
for Maldonado, has been dire. After last year, it’s a huge comedown
and can only be partially attributed to the Renault engine. Losing
their top engineer and driver to Ferrari and team principal (early
this season) to McLaren has harmed the team, but serious funding
issues may be more important than the personnel changes.
If Lotus
are almost distraught at eighth, Marussia must be ecstatic with
ninth, but will they hang onto it? The team have consistently
outperformed Caterham and even managed to surpass Sauber when Bianchi
got a ninth place finish for two points. Sauber may yet score (I hope
so) but Marussia has a real chance of ninth, which would be worth
tens of millions to them. Bianchi has been driving rather well and if
Raikkonen decides to drive off into the sunset at the end of the year
it’d be easy to see him getting a phone call to join Alonso.
It’s
only a couple of years ago that Sauber were enjoying multiple podium
finishes courtesy of the good pairing of Kobayashi and Perez. Last
year the car wasn’t so hot, and this year it’s one of the worst
on the grid. For the first time ever, the team may not score a point
in a whole season. Sutil’s an average driver, and Gutierrez’s
greatest attribute appears to be the funding he brings. On top of
that, the Ferrari engine isn’t great and the car seems very
twitchy. They may yet escape the PR disaster of not scoring at all,
and I hope they do, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end with no
points.
Caterham,
alas, remain rooted to the back of the grid. The team’s been taken
over by a Swiss-Middle Eastern consortium which has changed the team
principal and axed 40 jobs (leading to a lawsuit and counter-suit).
As yet, no real progress has been made on track, but the consortium
might be the injection of cash and desire that will see Caterham
finally stop being pointless. It’s also nice to see Kobayashi back
in F1.
So, that’s
the racing so far. But how about the betting?
I should
state that I’ve considered the UK to be the final first half race,
for a more even split (whether Russia is axed or not). On that basis,
the first half of the season has gone fairly well. It was more
profitable overall to bet-and-forget rather than hedge, but either
way the result for H1 was green.
However,
whilst the races have generally gone well, qualifying is red on
either measure. I have bet less often on qualifying than in the past
(only twice in the first half). The trend overall for race weekends
has been for moderately positive results, with nothing dire or
spectacular. I’m very happy with that, especially after 2013 began
so poorly.
On title
bets, these are also mostly good. Whilst Magnussen (backed at 50/1)
won’t be winning the title, Rosberg (16/1 and 24/1 with Ladbrokes
and Betfair respectively) may well. I’ve been able to back Hamilton
at evens to end up green whatever happens in the Drivers’.
On the
Constructors’ front things are a little less happy, as I backed
Williams for the title around Australia. This won’t happen, but
given the Drivers’ situation I’m not too displeased, overall,
with title bets.
I’ll
also be keeping a firm eye on the possibility of drivers moving from
one team to another. I could see one or possibly both Ferrari chaps
leaving (Raikkonen to retire, Alonso to go elsewhere), Button may be
axed, and Williams may be tempted to shove Massa overboard if Alonso
decides they have a chance at the 2015 title. Bianchi or Hulkenberg
could move up to Ferrari/McLaren. There’s also a possibility
Grosjean could replace Button (Boullier, McLaren’s sort-of team
principal, was not only his team principal at Lotus but, I think,
also manages him as a driver).
Looking
ahead to 2015, a bet I’d consider would be Bottas to win the
Drivers’ title (unless Alonso gets a seat with Williams). I think
the Finn’s very quick and, unlike the Mercedes pair, he doesn’t seem to
have a team mate quite capable of challenging him consistently.
I expect
the latter half of 2014 to be just as exciting, and perhaps more
fraught, than the first. My only fear is that the double points
nonsense of Abu Dhabi may end up determining the title.
Morris
Dancer
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