Belgium: post-race analysis
Well, the bet didn’t
come off. Very unusually, Alonso’s engineers didn’t clear the car
in time for the formation lap (he needed a new battery at the last
minute) leading to a 5 second penalty at a pit stop (which sounds
mild and might otherwise be, but it had a substantial impact on his
race result). So, the bet was red and the hedge unmatched. Would he
have had a podium but for that? Possibly. Raikkonen was very close,
but it’s worth mentioning Alonso also suffered a slowdown on the
last few laps (he may just have been conserving the car after ending
up 8th after a very tight battle for 5-8th
places). Anyway, disappointing, but lucks always plays a role and it
doesn’t always go well.
There was drama off the
start. Rosberg started poorly, Hamilton well. Alonso, lacking the
opportunity to go through the usual routine to optimise the start
procedure due to the aforementioned battery problem and dysfunctional
formation lap, was a bit lacklustre and both Red Bulls had a good
start.
On lap 1 the Mercedes,
Hamilton leading, were battling tightly. Hamilton cut across Rosberg,
on the racing line. The German lost a substantial portion of his
front wing, and the Briton ended up with a punctured rear tyre at the
worst part of the lap.
Rosberg got the lead,
Hamilton spent about 3 miles trundling back to the pit, the shredded
rubber flaying his floor and further damaging the car. In effect,
Hamilton’s race ended there (despite his continuous calls to
retire, the team kept him out until lap 39 of 44).
It was a racing
incident. No man was to blame, though one suspects it will not
engender warm and fuzzy feelings between the two drivers.
Added extra bit: was
just watching the BBC livefeed after the race. Apparently Mercedes
blames Rosberg, publicly. If so, that’s both foolish and wrong. If
a driver cuts across a car in front of him that can lead to the
position being defended, the lead car suffering a puncture, or the
following car losing part of the front wing. It was a racing
incident.
Rosberg did not escape
scot-free. The damage to his front wing was substantially hampering
his performance, eventually leading to an early stop (meaning he had
to switch to a three stop strategy) which was 7s or so longer than
usual due to a nose change. In essence, it cost him victory. But he
made up 18 points on Hamilton, so I don’t think he’ll be too
upset.
Early on, the top 6
were all within 1s of the driver ahead.
Rosberg’s woes,
Hamilton’s retirement and Alonso’s long stop putting him into
traffic meant we had the two Red Bulls at the sharp end. Vettel made
a small mistake enabling Ricciardo to pass, and from there the
grinning assassin did not look back. Vettel ended up in traffic after
pit stops, and, like Alonso, struggled to make much headway.
Weirdly, Hamilton
couldn’t get much above 16th. One can only assume his
floor was wrecked (and he was about 60-70s off the leader for most of
the time).
Raikkonen had stopped
very early, but unlike others this worked to his advantage. For a
long time the Finn was in a podium position, but, late on, fell
victim to the mighty straight line speed of the Williams as Bottas
claimed his fourth podium position of the year.
Because Rosberg pitted
so early when he eventually clambered into 2nd, behind
Ricciardo, he could not make the tyres last. So, he pitted and went
on a charge. Although he cut down the lead the Aussie had from about
20s to just a few, he was never close enough to challenge. He’ll be
disappointed, but extending his lead over Hamilton by 18 points will
probably lighten his mood rather a lot.
For the last few laps
positions 5-8th were all within a second of one another,
and there were fantastic scenes on-screen as we saw the McLarens,
Alonso and Vettel dice with one another. Ultimately the order was
Vettel, Magnussen, Button and Alonso [thanks to Ally from
Twitterland: it turns out the Spaniard lost part of his front wing,
hence slowness]. Perez and Kvyat rounded out the top 10.
So, it was a rather
eventful race, with quite a lot of on-track action. Surprised the
Mercedes wasn’t more dominant. Worth noting, however, that the Red
Bull’s rear wing was skinnier than a supermodel on a diet, whereas
Mercedes and Williams (due partly to the wet qualifying) both had
fuller wings. That means more potential to strip downforce for Monza,
boosting top speed. I expect the Italian race to be between Mercedes
and Williams.
Force India were the
worst of the Mercedes-powered cars today, by quite a long way.
Hulkenberg didn’t even score, and McLaren have bolstered their
advantage over Force India in the Constructors’. Massa was very
off-colour, an anonymous 13th compared to his team mate’s
podium. Illness? Car trouble? Not sure, but it means Ferrari retain
3rd in the Constructors’ despite Bottas’ excellent
showing.
Both Lotuses retired
again. Hell of a comedown from last season (they’re like the
Anti-Williams). I hope for Grosjean’s sake they can get pace, or
reliability (or even both) for next season, because right now it’s
a shade embarrassing. One of them touched Bianchi’s car on the
opening lap, which caused a puncture. The talented Frenchman retired,
though I’m not sure whether or not it was as a direct result of the
contact.
Drivers:
Rosberg 220
Hamilton 191
Ricciardo 156
Is Ricciardo now a
contender?
No. Why not? He’s had
three wins, but all three had large elements of luck. That’s not to
say he didn’t deserve them (he was in the position to take
advantage) but it is to say he won’t have huge slices of fortune at
enough races and the Red Bull is too far behind (perhaps excepting
Singapore) to consistently challenge the Mercedes on pace.
Twenty-nine points is a tasty lead, but because of the double-points
idiocy 50 is the magic number. I would be surprised if Rosberg
accrues such an advantage by Abu Dhabi.
Constructors:
Mercedes 411
Red Bull 254
Ferrari 158
Williams 150
McLaren 111
Force India 100
Short of a miracle the
title is Mercedes’. I do think Red Bull are almost nailed on for
2nd. Ferrari should lose 3rd to Williams, but
Raikkonen drove his best race of the season by a mile at Spa and if
he maintains that form Williams might find themselves struggling for
bronze position. To be honest, I think Williams will overtake the
prancing horse, as their car is simply better (but it will need Massa
to pull his weight).
Force India’s lack of
upgrades is hurting them now. The McLaren is a better car and Force
India, having been one of the best teams earlier, are now looking
like finishing 6th, despite a strong driver pairing.
The murmuring I read on
the BBC livefeed after the race suggests bad blood from Hamilton
towards Rosberg, and that the Mercedes bosses blame the German
driver. Maybe on replay it’ll look different, but at the time my
feeling was 100% that it was a racing incident. Hamilton cut across
Rosberg multiple times defending in Bahrain. Sometimes, an accident
happens and it can hurt neither, one, or both drivers.
Monza is next, in a
fortnight. I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for the odds on Williams
top scoring.
Morris Dancer
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