UK: pre-race

Well, I said the grid could be unexpected and it was certainly that. Quite probably the most surprising qualifying session of the year, which resulted in an intriguing grid for tomorrow.

Q1 started off a bit wet, suitable for intermediates, but then started to rapidly dry towards the end. Everyone managed to get out during this window, except Ferrari and Williams. Those two teams missed the optimal time, and when they were trying for their fast laps the rain fell again and the window of opportunity slammed shut. Shockingly, we lost, as well as both Caterhams, all four Ferraris and Williams. A minute or so late, and they line up 17-20^th. Almost as surprising, both Marussias made it through (although Chilton, alas, takes a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change).

Q2 couldn't quite match the drama, but it also started off a bit wet then dried up towards the end. Sutil was fast enough to escape Q1, but unfortunately went off and was unable to compete in the second part of qualifying. Neither Lotus got any further, but Grosjean did get 11^th which, for the team this season, is a very nice result. Bianchi got a very impressive 12^th for Marussia, and Gutierrez was 14^th (but will rise to 13^th, because of Chilton's penalty). Toro Rosso did very well to get both cars through to the final session.

Q3, however, was even more shocking than Q1. It was reasonably dry first off, but raining slightly, so everyone went off with dry tyres. Vettel screwed up his initial effort and didn't post a time on the first run. After the first efforts, Hamilton was two-tenths up on Rosberg, and the Toro Rossos were 5^th and 6^th. Drizzle fell, seven went out for their final runs (Ricciardo and the Toro Rossos did not bother). Hamilton was ahead of Rosberg and backed him up on the out lap. The German just squeezed over the line in time for a fast lap but Perez, immediately behind, did not. Hamilton was slower in the first two sectors and peeled off into the pits. Aborting the lap (he pulled over earlier) enabled Rosberg to pass him. Five cars were astounded that, after the wet first two sectors, sector three had almost entirely dried out enabling them to make up huge amounts of time. Rosberg got the pole, Vettel a surprise 2^nd, and Button an even more surprising 3^rd. Hulkenberg was next, followed by Magnussen and Hamilton, in a lowly 6^th. Perez, who lost the opportunity to improve because of the Mercedes business, was next, and then the three cars that hadn't bothered to try a final run.

Hamilton screwed up, and in the interview with Lee McKenzie he sounded utterly broken. To be honest, I was utterly shocked that others found so much time in the third sector, so his mistake was entirely understandable. Despite that, he knows that he handed pole to his fierce rival. He needs to pick himself up for tomorrow. From 6^th he can mitigate damage or even challenge for the win but if his head's not in the right place he'll struggle and will give away even more points (the field is closing in on Mercedes).

It's also been confirmed that Lotus will have the Mercedes engine next year. That won't be a panacea, but it'll save them money (it's the cheapest of the engines, oddly) and increase power significantly.

Vettel's in great shape. The Red Bull was very tasty on long runs, not quite on Mercedes pace but best of the rest (perhaps excepting Alonso, who starts 19^th). Button may struggle not to drift inexorably backwards, but it's still a great starting position.

Hard to judge Force India, who start 4^th and 7^th. They may end up holding on, more or less. Toro Rosso will probably aspire to retain any points positions and Ricciardo, from 8^th, should move forward. Williams and Ferrari will also be on a charge.

Weather, as we saw today, will be absolutely critical. Forecast for tomorrow is for it to be dry (almost certainly). Overtaking at Silverstone can be tricky and the DRS zones may well be of limited use.

The first bets which sprang to mind were:

Alonso top 6

Williams double points

Hamilton win/podium

Vettel win/podium

Kvyat points

I was thinking of Alonso for a podium, pre-qualifying, but top 6 afterwards. He's a great driver, the weather should be dry and his car has actually been performing well in practice. However, he's got a long way to go to make headway. The odds of evens available on Betfair were just not good enough. After waiting a bit he was up to 3.5 on Ladbrokes.

From 17^th and 18^th Williams were just 2.25 to have a double points finish, which is bloody stingy of Ladbrokes. It's almost as if they don't want punters to make money.

Hamilton should've gotten pole. He definitely has the pace and I think he is capable of passing everyone ahead of him (possibly excepting Rosberg) but the big question mark is over his mental state. Immediately after qualifying he looked and sounded crushed. After Monaco qualifying he was very competitive in the race, and the first lap of Austria (from 9^th) saw him climb to 4^th. He's 3.5 with Ladbrokes for the victory, which is tempting. For a podium, he's 1.35 (Betfair). Given potential reliability problems, possible difficulty overtaking at the circuit and question marks over his mental state that does not tempt me.

Vettel's been a bit under-scored by the judges, as it were, this season. He should've won in Canada and didn't due to bad strategy, getting trapped behind the Force India (fast in a straight line) of Hulkenberg and then emerging behind his team mate after the pit stops. He's also suffered the majority of reliability failures. He's been roughly equal to Ricciardo on pace this weekend and had a great stroke of luck, for once, in Q3. The Red Bull is the second fastest car at Silverstone, and he's 7 to win (each way, with 1/3 the odds for top 2) with Ladbrokes is slightly tempting. Not sure he could best Rosberg, though. He's 1.6 for a podium. Likely, but a little short.

Kvyat is 2.1 for points. He's been very impressive this season, but I'm uncertain about his car's reliability.

So, after all that nothing that really leaps out at me, which is a bit disappointing. Lack of a dry P3 made assessing performance a bit tricky too.

When none of my seemingly cunning betting ideas have nice odds it can be useful to look at things the other way, going through markets one by one and seeing if anything looks tempting.

Ladbrokes:

Hulkenberg or Button to be winner without Hamilton/Rosberg (each way), 8

Race margin of victory, under 5.5s, 2.1

Betfair:

Rosberg, Winner, 1.77

Hulkenberg, podium, 5.7

Of those, the winner without Hamilton/Rosberg market interested me most, although trying to pick whether Hulkenberg or Button stood a better chance was difficult. Vettel's odds were 1.83, but there are some mitigating factors which put me off him (short odds, the car was less impressive on the medium compound than others, he has a history of reliability failures). But then, a short odds winner is always nicer than a heroic long odds failure.

I decided to back Hulkenberg to be winner without Hamilton/Rosberg at 8 (each way). I checked the last few P1 and P2 sessions at other races and Force India often seem off the pace then. I have more faith in the Force India than the McLaren, Hulkenberg's a very good driver, although he does start from the dirty side of the track and Vettel has had a few DNFs this year. I think he has a good chance of finishing top 5 and a reasonable shot of being the fastest non-Mercedes.

Rosberg seriously tempted me at 1.77, however, the ERS problem in practice put me off. If it recurs in the race he will not win.

If the race is half as entertaining as qualifying it'll be a cracker.

Morris Dancer