Spain: pre-race

Got to admit qualifying was a bit galling, although it did have some interesting moments. If I'd made the bet myself I might've gone for a hedge (as I often do), and if Vettel hadn't had a red flag (perhaps needlessly) things may have turned out differently. However, the real story is that the tip was close but wrong, and red's red whether it's by an inch of a mile, or, indeed, 0.168 seconds.

In Q1 Maldonado crashed (an event which astounded and astonished all who heard of such a thing). Together with the pointless teams Sutil went out, as has become quite common.

In Q2 2/6 of those who departed did say without setting a time at all. Magnussen suffered an in-garage power failure and Vergne, who has a 10 place grid penalty for a wheel going walkies during practice, opted not to run. Gutierrez and Kvyat were 14^th and 13^th, with the Force Indias the fastest not to make Q3.

Q3 saw a Mercedes duel for pole, as expected. However, the initial fast laps were aborted (when Rosberg seemed ahead...) due to Vettel suffering a failure similar to practice and causing a red flag prior to the initial laps being completed. Rosberg had been fastest in Q1 and Q2, but was beaten on both initial and later runs by Hamilton, but not by a vast margin. The race remains in doubt.

Ricciardo was best of the rest, and Bottas will be thrilled with an impressive starting spot of 4^th. However, Grosjean's 5^th must rank as the best result based on previous performances. Lotus are in trouble and that will help them, especially as the clean side of the grid may prove especially advantageous on the circuit with the longest run to the first corner on the calendar.

Raikkonen narrowly out-qualified Alonso, and Button was 8^th. Massa was, surprisingly, some way off Bottas' pace and could only manage 9^th. Vettel, of course, was 10^th.

Not all bad news for Rosberg, though, as he was fastest in sector 3 which can be a good guide for Monaco. Got to admit I was quite hopeful he'd get pole, and whilst I still think 3.8 was too long, it didn't come off due to bad judgement.

The Force Indias may be able to make progress. Lack of tyre temperature hurt them in qualifying but could enable them to make 1 stop fewer than others, whereas Williams and Ferrari were harder on their tyres in Bahrain and had to make a stop more than most (both Ferraris and both Williams are ahead of the Force Indias). It's also worth mentioning that, apparently, Force India have only brought a new floor to Spain, whereas everyone else has a raft of updates, hence the loss of relative pace.

Ricciardo may spend the race all by himself, left behind by the Mercedes, which I expect to have a private duel, and ahead of everyone else comfortably. Grosjean will be intriguing to watch. He's a talented driver, but has complained all weekend of car issues, most notably it pulling to the left under braking (making his fast pace all the more impressive).

Ricciardo may have a hard time, depending how things go. His car was very slow in the speed trap, so although it's fast in the twisty bits he'll find it hard to pass anyone on the straight. A mistimed pitstop could ruin his race more easily than most.

I expect Bottas to go backwards. The Williams seems to be one of those cars that has great potential but doesn't seem to be able to deliver on race day. Ferrari are hard to call. They may end up standing still.

Vettel ended up getting a 5 place grid penalty, because it was a gearbox failure which requires a replacement. He starts 15^th.

The starting grid will probably have a decent resemblance to the final result, as it's hard to pass in Spain. However, the same was/is true of Bahrain, so the new setup (tyres, high torque, lower downforce) may make it a more entertaining race in terms of on-track passing. Nobody's won from lower than 5^th, which Alonso did last year.

Disclaimer: due to recent computer issues I'm playing it cautiously and not betting myself this weekend. Usually, I back every tip I put up. I'm hoping I suffer no more issues and can get back to that for Monaco.

I waited until this morning for any potential penalties to arrive (seems there are none beyond Vergne's and Vettel's which we knew about already) and for the markets to develop. The bets I considered were:

Hulkenberg, top 6, 4.1

Grosjean, podium, 12.5

Alonso, podium, 4.8

Force India, double points finish, 2.75

Ricciardo, winner without Hamilton/Rosberg, 2.2

I rate Hulkenberg very highly, so much so that him being top 6 is a bet I often check. I'm not sure the odds are quite nice enough. The Force India might be able to eke out its tyres for one fewer pit stop than some others, but it's very hard to pass on circuit (or has been, in the past), and if they get stuck they'll be screwed. Tempting, but not tempting enough.

Grosjean for a podium tempted me, but I decided against it for a few reasons. He's complained about his car pulling to the left under braking. If that gets worse then it'll be game over. The Lotus has been faster, by some distance, this weekend than previously but reliability was also a weakness for the Enstone team, so it would not be a surprise if he suffered a failure. In addition, he'll have extremely good driver/car combinations around him (Ricciardo, Alonso) and there's likely to be only one spot left on the podium once Hamilton and Rosberg have settled the win.

Alonso's a fantastic driver and got his last win here. However, I wonder whether the Ferrari has the pace to be best of the rest, and whether it'll shred its tyres. The long run to turn 1 may mean he'll get mugged by the Mercedes-powered Button and Massa (the Brazilian has been starting very well this year). So, no tip.

Force India are 7/4, or 2.75 in new money, to get a double points finish. I think that's worth backing. Perez and Hulkenberg are a good combination, and the difficulty getting heat into the tyres, which harmed them in qualifying, may well help them in the race. So, this is what I'd back (it's with Ladbrokes).

I also considered Ricciardo to be winner without Hamilton and Rosberg at 6/5 (2.2) with Ladbrokes. Tempting, but Vettel's had a wiring loom and gearbox failure, so perhaps the Red Bull is a bit fragile.

So, the one tip:

Force India for a double points finish, 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

Let's hope the race is thrilling, and green.

Morris Dancer