Spain: post-race analysis

The race wasn't a classic, although the end was entertaining, but the bet came off (just). Overall the weekend was slightly green.

Off the start Bottas took third from Ricciardo, and Button left the handbrake on. Otherwise drivers mostly held station. Grosjean had a lock-up into the first turn but managed to stay ahead of both Ferraris, Raikkonen retaining his place ahead of Alonso.

In the initial phase of the race Hamilton slightly pulled away from Rosberg, and the pair of them galloped away from the battle for third. Bottas remained ahead of Ricciardo on track, but after the first pit stops were done the amiable Aussie was a distance ahead and untroubled in third for the rest of the afternoon.

After the first stops Hamilton went medium and Rosberg hard, but the gap didn't really change, staying around 3-4s. In the final stint Hamilton was on the hard tyres and Rosberg the medium. The German was on a charge, but may have left it a lap or two too late, and although he was very close (less than a second) at the end he couldn't pass Hamilton.

However, it's worth pointing out that Rosberg was faster on the 'slower' hard compound than Hamilton on the medium, but when the tyres were switched the German was still faster. Spain is a hard circuit to overtake on, and although this is a good win for Hamilton we still cannot count Rosberg out because he was very, very close. The win means Hamilton leads the title race for the first time.

Grosjean initially held onto fifth but spent the rest of the race slowly descending down the order. Given the Lotus' horrendous start to the season I was pretty impressed with the Frenchman, who ended up 8^th and got Lotus their first points of the season.

Bottas nearly had 4^th, but was passed by Vettel, who had a very good day and rose inexorably through the field from 15^th to 4^th. I think he must be amongst the happiest of chaps after the race, given how difficult the weekend (and season) had been up until that time. Red Bull firmly look to be best of the rest right now, but they're still a day and a half behind Mercedes. Hamilton finished 49 seconds ahead of Ricciardo.

Alonso was kept behind Raikkonen most of the time, but the two went on a split strategy which ultimately saw Alonso get the better of his Finnish team mate. However, it was the most competitive (relative to Alonso) I think Raikkonen's been this year. That's good, but the car is not. It needs more in both power and aerodynamic terms. Rumours have resumed about Ferrari trying to tempt Newey, and Alonso considering jumping ship.

Force India had a quiet day. Perez was less than a second behind Hulkenberg for most of the race, eventually passed him cleanly (but didn't make a huge gap) and the pair finished 9^th and 10^th (which was nice). The car needs updates, and fast, or they'll get left behind.

McLaren's nightmare continues, with a third successive pointless race (they finished 11^th and 12^th). It's simply not good enough. Next year they have the opportunity to make a great leap forward as sole customers of Honda (who may well try and copy the Silver Arrows' cunning layout of the engine and its various bits and bobs). However, their problem isn't really power, it's aerodynamics. Honda won't help with that. Hiring a chap or two from Red Bull may help.

Bit perplexed by Massa only finishing 13^th. Not sure if I missed an incident, but that means he went backwards from the grid, and finished very poorly compared to 5th-placed Bottas.

After 5 races of a probable 19 races (Russia could yet be axed or even replaced by Azerbaijan) the championships look like this:

Hamilton 100

Rosberg 97

Alonso 49

Vettel 45

Ricciardo 39

Hulkenberg 37

Bottas 34

Mercedes 197

Red Bull 84

Ferrari 66

Force India 57

Williams 46

McLaren 43

The drivers' title, barring something highly unlikely, is still a Mercedes duel. The advantage is Hamilton's, but isn't so great that we can yet write off the season. If Rosberg loses in Monaco, that'll be a significant blow. Not only will he have lost two races (Spain and Monaco) at which he beat Hamilton last year, but it's a street circuit, and if Hamilton can win there and Abu Dhabi it'll make it much harder for Rosberg to bounce back.

The Constructors' is a reasonable guide to pace. Mercedes are best, by a mile, and Red Bull are best of the rest. In Monaco, Red Bull may be closer to challenging the Silver Arrows. All the sliding cars are doing due to torque exceeding grip will be interesting on a circuit 90% plus of which is ringed by barriers.

Monaco is in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer