A Look Ahead to 2014
New engines, weight limit and fixed gear ratios are all part
of the 2014 regulation changes. We also have a big change to the driver
lineups. I’m going to look at the regulations first (warning, this post will
probably be bloody enormous).
Weight limit -
F1 cocked this up. In essence, the weight limit’s too low
which means taller drivers (Button, Hulkenberg, maybe Grosjean) will be penalised,
and dinky chaps (Alonso, Massa) will benefit by quite a bit. We’re talking
0.2-0.4s per lap, give or take. That’s a huge chunk of time. However, it may
matter less than it otherwise would due to the significant changes made in
other areas. The weight limit is likely to be increased for 2015.
“That means a smaller driver such as Ferrari's Fernando
Alonso, who weighs 68kg, is at an advantage over a taller one such as Force India's
Nico Hulkenberg, who weighs nearly 80kg, to the tune of 0.42secs a lap if the
team cannot reduce the car by the amount of their weight difference.” - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25310485
Exhausts! -
Yes, undoubtedly an exciting part of the rule changes. The
F1 bigwigs are trying to stop exhaust gases being directed in such a way as to
produce downforce at the rear, which greatly enhances cornering speed. This is,
more or less, why Red Bull have dominated in recent years.
All aboard the power train -
Engines are not the only source of power in F1 nowadays. In
2014 we’ll have them referred to as power trains. This is because, as well as
the V6 turbo replacing the V8s we have now, there will be ERS
(Energy Recovery System). This includes a souped up version of KERS, but also
recycles waste/excess heat from the turbo. The ERS
is to KERS as a sabre-toothed cat is to Mr. Tiddles. KERS offered 6.7s of 60kw
(or none, if you were Mark Webber). ERS
provides 33s of 120kw (160bhp). In addition, that’s not fixed, so you could
double the time and halve the power available. In that way it’s comparable to
the way that drivers now (and still will) alter fuel mixtures for more or less
power. It won’t, however, function using a button but, (I think) it’ll work
automatically having been set up pre-race.
The theoretical bhp of the engine itself is meant to be 600
or so. I’ve heard rumours the Mercedes is significantly more powerful, up to
100bhp, than its rivals, with Ferrari ahead of Renault in power terms. This
will dictate qualifying pace, to a very large degree. However, reliability and
fuel efficiency given the much reduced (by about 40kg) fuel tanks will be
critical to winning races. No point having a 700bhp monster engine if you have to
run at 50% power for half the race. We may see a significant divergence in
performance between qualifying and race pace.
Ugly cars will return -
I don’t care about this personally, but we’re likely to see
stepped noses as we did in 2012 due to regulations lowering the front end of
the car. I imagine people are still thinking of how close Grosjean came to
permanently retiring Alonso in Spa 2012, and it’s good they’re taking safety
seriously.
Unreliability -
Reliability is expected to be a serious issue, especially
early on. Whilst I expect the tyres (see below) not to be as much of a problem
as this year just about everything else will decline in reliability. The ERS
is as complicated as an explanation from Sir Humphrey Appleby, and if it breaks
then (unlike this year, when it was inconvenient) you may as well switch the
car into reverse. Packaging the ERS will be
different too, as you can’t split it (Red Bull did this with KERS which enabled
a smoother car but did lead to reliability issues).
Fixed gear ratios -
Gear ratios must be selected prior to the season starting.
Now, I’m not a technical chap so apologies if the following summary is a mound
of horseshit. Basically, a longer set of gears means your top speed is higher.
Shorter gears improve acceleration but cut down on the top speed. This means we
could see some interesting changes in the pecking order at more unusual
circuits. In addition, teams can change their ratios once during the season.
This could be negative (to correct cocking them up originally) or positive (to
take account of the changing nature of circuits as the season progresses).
Tyres -
With more torque Button has expressed a fear that spinning
up the tyres could become quite easy. This may be a problem for the more
aggressive drivers. Due to this, and also the disintegration of tyres at
various races this year, I expect Pirelli will make the tyres as hard as they
can. This will reduce lap times, but hopefully improve safety as well as giving
the teams one less problem to deal with.
Double points -
In a moronic decision, some bigwigs have decided that the
final race (sadly in Abu Dhabi
rather than the excellent Interlagos) will award double points. Yes, a win in Abu
Dhabi is now worth twice that of winning Spa. Bloody
cretins. This has been criticised by just about everyone except Sergio Perez,
who spoke immediately after getting a Force India seat, and which I suspect is
the Force India opinion. In betting terms, there may be a chance of a very long
shot coming off regarding something like top 3 in the drivers’ title race or
suchlike, but that’ll depend on circumstances.
If you want a more technical/in-depth look at the regulation
changes I recommend visiting this link: http://thewptformula.wordpress.com/2013/11/30/analysis-2014-general-summary/
Drivers -
There have been significant changes at the vast majority of
teams. A handful of seats remain unknown at this time.
Red Bull:
Vettel and Ricciardo. It’ll be interesting to see if
Ricciardo retains his smile when Vettel, as is likely, crushes him. The German
may miss Webber’s feedback, though, and rumours of the Renault engine being
weakest in terms of horsepower could hamper his hopes.
Mercedes:
The only top team with an unchanged lineup, and
Hamilton/Rosberg could be the best on the grid. Not only are they fast, they
get along and will obey team orders (or did, when Brawn was there…). For a long
time there have been rumours Mercedes would massively benefit from the
regulation changes and these have not abated. I backed (with a tiny stake)
Rosberg at 16/1 with Ladbrokes to take the title. 20 is currently available on
Betfair. I think he’s seriously underestimated (on a points per finish basis he
was very slightly better than Hamilton),
and his steady rather than aggressive approach could help next year.
Ferrari:
Alonso and Raikkonen should be the best pairing on the grid
(arguably, at least). I’m not sure if this will be the case. Alonso went to
Ferrari for a long term deal as clear number one. Until now, he’s had that. If
anything, he’s been let down by the car (and some serious bad luck in 2012).
Now his number one status has gone, in a situation vaguely reminiscent of 2007
(although I think it’ll be less combative). With some good engineering hires
the car may be better this year, and it’ll be fascinating to see how the two
drivers get along (or not).
Lotus:
Grosjean’s a great driver now, but Maldonado… isn’t. The
ill-favoured one (apparently that’s the true meaning of his name) can be very
fast, but he’s also got a dangerous temper, lack of self-control and poor
judgement on and off the track. I fear that Lotus will lose in prize money what
they gain in sponsorship from Maldonado.
McLaren:
Button and Magnussen are an interesting pairing. We’ll have
to wait and see how the new driver does, but it’s worth remembering McLaren
have a lot of resources and should be a lot more competitive in 2014 than 2013.
I suspect they won’t be title contenders, although I did put a small sum on
Magnussen at 50/1 to win.
Force India:
Hulkenberg and Perez is actually a very good lineup.
Hulkenberg is probably (perhaps tied with Grosjean) the best non-world champion
on the grid. Whilst Perez struggled a bit at McLaren he didn’t have a shocker,
and he scored numerous podiums for Sauber, outperforming Kobayashi to do so. Fighting
for the title seems unlikely, but the occasional podium and perhaps getting a
better Constructors’ finish should be their aim.
Sauber:
Sauber will have Sutil and another chap driving for them.
Sutil’s competent but won’t set the world alight. Sirotkin, a 19 year old
Russian, was thought nailed on for a seat, partly to placate Russian money men,
but it’s thought the team have persuaded their backers that shoving him into an
F1 car straight away would harm rather than help his long term prospects. So,
he may well be a reserve driver, with another (maybe Gutierrez) taking the
second race seat. I think they may have a harder time in 2014 than 2013.
Update: looks like Gutierrez will indeed get the second
seat.
Toro Rosso:
Vergne and Kvyat will drive for them next year. Vergne’s
pretty good and I think the difference between him and Ricciardo has been
somewhat exaggerated. Kvyat’s a Russian rookie, and it’s hard to say how good
he’ll be. I suspect fighting for points will be the height of their ambitions.
Williams:
Williams have been on a downward spiral (the win in 2012
aside) since the reign of King Alfred, but there are some positive signs. As
well as hiring engineers from Red Bull and Lotus they’ve got two decent
drivers. Massa joins the team, and
I think Bottas is a pretty skilled chap. They also have Mercedes engines, which
may help. I think they may be able to get into the points more often next year.
Marussia/Caterham:
The only confirmed driver for the pointless teams is the
talented Jules Bianchi. Sadly, I suspect neither team will manage to score a
point again. Hope I’m wrong, and reliability issues may help them out.
It’s pure speculation, but I think we may see a
Vettel/Hamilton/Rosberg fight for the title. If so, Mercedes should win the
Constructors’, but the odds of 2/1 or so currently available are far too short.
BBC F1 coverage:
Thanks to the Judas Iscariot approach to the licence
fee-payers and incompetent negotiation, the BBC
again only has 9 of 19 races. On the plus side, they have most of the good ones
(notably missing the US
and Brazil) and
not Monaco or Singapore.
Here’s the list of live races:
30 March: Malaysia
11 May: Spain
8 June: Canada
6 July: Britain
24 August: Belgium
7 September: Italy
5 October: Japan
12 October: Russia
23 November: Abu Dhabi
Right, that was quite the monster article to write on a
Saturday morning. Hopefully I didn’t miss anything too important. I don’t plan
on writing another article for some time, maybe just a single preview of the
2014 season before it gets underway.
Morris Dancer
Nice article - looking forward to the season. It'll be interesting to see the teams face the challenges of radical change.
ReplyDeleteTim B
Well, that's bloody irritating. I wrote a reply and it disappeared when I clicked publish.
ReplyDeleteCheers.
The biggest new bit of information since writing this is that a few degrees too hot can wreck everything, which will give the manufacturers an edge. Whoever, handles cooling the best will have a significant advantage in reliability.