Saturday, 2 November 2013

Abu Dhabi: pre-race



In Q1 we lost the pointless teams, as usual, as well as Sutil and Gutierrez. Slightly surprising Gutierrez left this early given how strong the Sauber seemed earlier.

Alonso was the biggest casualty of Q2, managing only 11th (Massa was 10th). Di Resta, Button, Vergne, Maldonado and Bottas were also out. It’s the first time this year that Alonso failed to make the top 10.

Q3 was notable for Webber getting pole, ahead of Vettel. Hamilton spun on his final lap, and starts 4th, with Rosberg 3rd. Raikkonen was 5th, and starting alongside him is Hulkenberg, who did very well to beat Grosjean (7th). Massa, Perez and Ricciardo round out the top 10.

After qualifying Raikkonen was excluded as his car failed a floor flex test, so he’ll start either last or from the pit lane.

I’ve backed Hulkenberg to finish in the top 6 at 2.63 with Ladbrokes. Given he starts 5th and has been highly competitive in recent races, and the Sauber is hard to overtake, this seems a reasonable bet.

Three other bets that interested me were:
Webber to win 3.35
Rosberg to win without Webber and Vettel (Ladbrokes) 4
Mercedes to top score (Ladbrokes) 9

Ladbrokes hadn’t, at the time of writing, corrected for Raikkonen’s penalty. I found it hard to decide between the bets, not because I dislike them or the odds, but because they all seem to have value and I was unsure about how many bets I’d feel comfortable making (I tend to put on a standard stake for every tip).

In the end I backed Rosberg at 4 to win (without Vettel or Webber) with Ladbrokes. Raikkonen’s probably out of the equation, Grosjean’s been having brake problems, and although Hamilton’s a serious contender Rosberg starts ahead and has slightly better odds (he’s also been performing a bit better than Hamilton lately).

So, two bets:
Hulkenberg to be top 6 at 2.63 (Ladbrokes)
Rosberg to win without Vettel or Webber at 4 (Ladbrokes)

Morris Dancer

2 comments:

  1. Posted earlier on the wrong thread:

    Qualifying wasn't terrifically encouraging as regards my betting prospects with all three of the drivers I laid starting on the the front two rows of the grid.
    At least Vettel showed he is mortal by being knocked off his No.1 perch - now he's world champ again, I suppose there's no longer quite the incentive to win every race. In the case of Mark Webber precisely the opposite applies of course. They'll miss him when he's gone, that's for sure.

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  2. Morris - that 3/1 bet on Rosberg winning excl the two Red Bull drivers looks like good value. I rate him as having the same chance as Hamilton and twice the chance of the two Lotus combined as well as twice the odds of all the remaining drivers combined. In simple arithmetic terms therefore I reckon his one chance is opposed by the sum of two chances, i.e. he should be priced at 2/1, as should Hamilton.
    I'm not so keen on the 13/8 odds on a top 6 finish for Hulkenberg - not only do these odds look a little skinny, but this looks more of a lottery, where at best he can only be expected to squeak in. That said Laddies' odds are a whopping 62% more generous than the measly evens on offer from Corals.

    Good luck everyone!

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