Sunday, 8 September 2013

Italy: post-race analysis

Irony: getting a tip right (and even a green weekend) on the first race for ages you barely watch. First profitable weekend since Silverstone, and although (discounting the non-tipped Grosjean lay) the profit margin’s only 10% of one stake, I won’t complain. As Kermit the Frog once said, it’s not easy being green.

Been a shade off-colour/sleepy today. Nothing serious but I couldn’t really give the race my attention. However, both Red Bulls got on the podium, so that’s rather splendid.

Hulkenberg did well to retain fifth, ahead of Rosberg’s Mercedes. The Sauber driver is certainly doing his career prospects no harm at all with a performance like that, after a very solid qualifying. If/when the driver markets come up I might back him for the Ferrari seat, contingent upon the odds.

Ricciardo had a solid seventh, one place down on his starting slot, and Grosjean rose slightly from thirteenth to eighth.

Mercedes had a lacklustre result, with Rosberg sixth and Hamilton suffering radio breakdown and a slow puncture and managing only ninth. As a result Ferrari have narrowly moved into second in the Constructors’, but Red Bull are miles ahead.

Red Bull were the fastest yet again today, but Ferrari were pretty close. It was also surprising and impressive that Hulkenberg’s Sauber only slipped from third to fifth, and that happened before the first corner.

Force India had a terrible race. Di Resta failed to finish lap 1, and Sutil managed a feeble sixteenth.

On a sidenote I very much enjoyed the Predator-vision thermal camera, which showed nicely the temperature differences on tyres during the course of a lap.

The betting problem is largely due to qualifying. I’ve just had a quick look through and it seems that I’m mostly right when betting on pole, and mostly wrong when not. So, maybe the answer is to bet on pole position and nothing else.

Vettel 222
Alonso 169
Hamilton 141
Raikkonen 134

Well, it seems Vettel is destined for another title. Annoyingly, Alonso also seems likely to get a top 3 finish. I laid such a possibility when Ferrari seemed to have dropped off the pace, since when he’s had consecutive podium finishes. The cad.

Red Bull 352
Ferrari 248
Mercedes 245

Red Bull would need to break both of Vettel’s legs to somehow fail to get both titles. I expect Mercedes to beat Ferrari, though. Rosberg and Hamilton had a slightly poor qualifying at Monza, and they’ll probably be very competitive in Singapore (the Mercedes is better at such circuits, I believe).

The next race is in Singapore, in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer


  1. A good exciting race, except at the front which was something of a procession which we've seen all too often, but a lousy result for me betting-wise, saved only by an improved position on my SELL season spread bet on account of Grosjean's modest 8th place.

  2. Thanks for the summary, Mr Dancer. I haven't seen the race yet, although I don't have a problem knowing the result and still watching it.

    As I knew I would be busy today I decided not to bet on the race - but the knowledge that I had a free £5 bet hanging around with WH got the better of me. Hence the double-Red Bull at Evens on a free bet got me an undeserved fiver. That has since been converted into liquid form and a pint raised to the most excellent Mr Dancer and the splendid Peter.

    Often the small unexpected results bring more pleasure than the serious money.

  3. With any luck the regulation changes next year will shake things up dramatically. I remember hearing somewhere or other that Newey was often a bit off-kilter with significant rule changes, initially, but then honed his cars to perfection.

    Np, Mr. M. Glad to actually offer a green tip.

  4. What should have been a bore-fest of a race was enlivened by both Raikonnen and Hamilton's march through the field. I am staggered to be able to say this was one of the more enjoyable races to watch this year.

    Also sad to see Hamilton so obviously down after the race - he was being too hard on himself. His driving was excellent after problems. Yet again, I find myself thinking him as being emotionally fragile, a trait I have perceived throughout his career (*).

    At the front, good to see Webber getting his first podium at Monza. I'm taking his imminent retirement is a sign of my age - I remember thinking how young he looked when he started in F1, and he was hardly a spring chicken at 26.

    (*) Which may be unfair, as we only get to see what the media wants, not necessarily the real person.

  5. Hamilton's latter 2011 season, if I remember correctly, was wrecked by mental fragility when he had a tough time with his lady friend. However, after breaking up (temporarily, I think, don't pay much attention to that aspect of things) with her this year he got a pole and a win, so I thought he'd turned a corner.

    Mental toughness is a strength of Vettel that often gets overlooked. It may be his single biggest advantage over other drivers.