Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Italy: early discussion



Apologies for this thread being a bit late (normally I try and put them up on Monday/Tuesday). Shockingly, this is because I was so busy concentrating on doing some actual work that I forgot.

Ahem.

The tyre compounds for Monza will be medium and hard, the same combination we saw at Spa. The tyres played relatively little role in differentiating the teams there.

Monza’s a very high speed circuit, with minimal downforce (teams with money often have a Monza-specific setup/rear wing). It’s comparable to Canada, or Spa if you go for the low downforce setup (you can go either way in Belgium due to the contrasting sector types). The circuit’s pretty much a collection of straights with tiny kinks masquerading as corners.

Traditionally, it hasn’t been a Red Bull-friendly circuit, but it would be an error of judgement to write off the processional victors of Spa. We can’t go by last year (they suffered a rare double retirement), but in 2011 Vettel won and in 2010 he got on the podium.

In off-track news, Ricciardo has been confirmed as Vettel’s team mate for next year. This leads me to think that Raikkonen said no (or terms offered and desired were mutually exclusive), as Ricciardo was clearly super-enthusiastic for the deal and would’ve said yes at any time. Horner has emphasised that he will not be a number two driver, and that Ben Affleck has been universally welcomed as the new Batman.

Early forecasts indicate a small chance of rain over the weekend, so it’s worth keeping an eye on that (although qualifying and the race are likely to be dry).

Whilst qualifying was close (largely due to the elements) in Belgium there was a rock solid dry-running pecking order of Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton. That was pretty tedious to watch, alas, but I’d be surprised if it’s changed that much from then to now.

I’m also wondering if I should offer my tennis tips here/on Twitter as well. They’d be very brief and rather haphazard (I bet only when I see value, as opposed to F1 where, so far at least, I try and bet each weekend).

If you have any insights, tips, questions, thoughts or cogitations do feel free to share them in the comments.

Morris Dancer

5 comments:

  1. Good intro as usual Morris, thanks.
    One thing I've learned over this F1 season is that the only way to make money on a consistent basis is by laying bets on Betfair - the bookies are just way too greedy and if you can't beat'em, then join 'em is what I say!

    So far I've just had my customary "insurance" bet on Grosjean to achieve a podium finish to protect my SELL spread bet on him winning <104 points for the season. 6-8 points per Grand Prix I can cope with 15-25 point wins I definitely cannot. I'm pleased to have been able to back him at 11.5 = 10.5 net of 5% comm'n, compared with most bookies' prices of 8.0 or less.

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  2. Ironically, my relatively few green bets this year have almost all been on Ladbrokes, which has meant my two account are utterly lopsided.

    I don't think Lotus will do well, but that's just a feeling.

    Hard to see anyone but Mercedes or Red Bull competing for pole, but there could be interesting bets for top 3 or top 10 (although liquidity can be an issue there).

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  3. In my unending search for value, I've uncovered a tasty morsel this morning in the form of backing Perez for a points finish at evens with Sportingbet - this being almost double the odds available from some other bookies and it looks to be a likely winner providing Sergio stays the course.

    Earlier this season it seemed that the Mexican was seriously challenging Button's top dog position in the McLaren team but he seems to have gone backwards over the last few Grand Prix - he's overdue for a big performance very soon otherwise his seat could be at risk for next season.

    I think he'll achieve this relatively modest target especially as McLaren seem, very belatedly, to be getting their act together.

    Unless I spot an opportunity during P3 or Qualification today, this bet and my defensive wager on a top 6 finish for Grosjean will probably my lot.

    In much the same way as Perez, only more so, Nico Rosberg badly needs a big result - after his heroics earlier in the season he seems to be the forgotten man, having been totally eclipsed by Lewis Hamilton of late. I was tempted to back him on the basis that Mercedes' huge improvements must provide him with a big opportunity sooner or later, but the odds on offer for him don't come close to representing any sort of value so I'm leaving well alone.

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  4. Morris - I disagree with you as regards Lotus' prospects this weekend.

    I couldn't resist having a couple of quid on a Raikkonen win at crazy odds of 20 with betfair (18/1 net in real money). I don't expect to collect but it could provide a profitable trading opportunity should he be in 3rd position or better during the race or indeed on the starting grid.

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  5. Whilst Perez could get a points position, with Force India and Toro Rosso capable of getting a top 10 finish I think evens is not too appetising.

    Your Raikkonen bet reminds me of when I backed Massa for a pole at about 17. Never came close, but the lay got matche dat about 5 or 6, so I finished ahead on that bet.

    I do wonder how Ferrari will do, both in the race and qualifying.

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