Belgium: pre-qualifying
The tyres this weekend are medium and hard.
The Lotus seems like it may run the double-DRS,
finally. This is basically a device to reduce drag on straights, enabling the
team to run more downforce generally (the rear wing gets stalled by air flow
that enters via two slots either side of the main air intake above the driver’s
head when there’s low pressure under the front wing. I think).
Showery, wet-dry weather is expected throughout the weekend.
Whilst lower downforce will ease overtaking in the race it will also make a car
suffer more from the slippery conditions if the track becomes wet.
P1 began with the track mostly wet but partly dry. Running
was limited and on intermediates. The track half-dried out, enough for hard
tyres to be used but not enough for times to be considered representative of
pace.
Alonso as fastest, ahead of Di Resta, Sutil, Perez, Rosberg,
Vettel, Gutierrez, Hulkenberg, Ricciardo, with Bottas rounding out the top 10.
Commentary suggested a low or high downforce setup could
work, but that lower downforce was better for the race as it enables more
overtaking whereas higher downforce is better for qualifying (faster overall)
but makes passing harder. With 1-2 pit stops expected getting stuck behind
someone could ruin a race.
Happily P2 was entirely dry. Vettel suffered some sort of
tyre failure with his right rear (the most loaded tyre on this circuit).
Unidentified cause as yet but the tyre held together pretty well, certainly
compared to the dramatic disintegrations seen as Silverstone. Vettel and Webber
were fastest, a clear eight-tenths ahead of Grosjean. He was followed by Massa,
Vergne, Raikkonen, Alonso, Perez, Rosberg and Di Resta.
At this point Red Bull do seem fastest but whether that
eight-tenths margin is true to life or not is hard to say. The cars immediately
behind them are fairly tightly clustered together.
On Friday morning the puncture to Vettel’s tyre (and
Alonso’s, the Spaniard suffering a similar situation in P2) was attributed by
Pirelli to a piece of metal found at turn 13 which matched the size of the
punctures.
The forecast for qualifying is a more than 50% chance of
pretty substantial rainfall.
At the start of P3 the Lotuses had removed the double-DRS
and blocked up the mini-intakes either side of the main air intake above the
driver’s head, which is a shame. During the session in an interview Toto Wolff
was asked about ‘even his car’ struggling to get temperature into the tyres,
which suggests the Mercedes should be ok on their tyres.
Vettel was fastest in P3, just a tenth ahead of Alonso.
Webber was close behind in third, then Vergne, Massa,
Button, Gutierrez, Grosjean, Rosberg and Raikkonen. Ferrari seem to have
improved since Friday, with Lotus and Mercedes dropping back.
It’s possible that Mercedes were sandbagging, as they’ve
done in the past before plucking pole from under the nose of Red Bull, but I’m
not sure that’s the case.
Because rain is probable for qualifying (and I’m pushed for
time) I’m not offering a tip for it. My expectation is a Vettel pole, with
McLaren reaching Q3 and Toro Rosso to do fairly well.
Morris Dancer
Fantastic Qualifying session - best F1 action of the season so far by far!
ReplyDeleteIndeed, 'twas most exciting.
ReplyDeletePretty tricky setup for race betting. Not sure when the pre-race piece will be up, but hopefully it'll be within 2 hours or so.