Monday, 19 August 2013

Belgium: early discussion

Feels like bloody ages since the last race (4 weeks, as it happens). Anyway, at least we’re going to a proper circuit. Spa’s one of the very best on the calendar, and it’ll be interesting (and perhaps critical for the title race) to see how Mercedes fare. Unlike Hungary, the Belgian circuit is festooned with fast corners. If the Silver Arrows can handle their tyres on such a circuit then Vettel may face a serious challenge from Hamilton.

Ferrari need to sort themselves out. They’re being out-qualified and are now fourth on race pace. If this persists Alonso will not only fail to take the championship, he’ll not even finish in the top 3.

My season bets are ropier this year than last (in common with the race bets). However, one I made a little while ago was laying Alonso to be top 3 at 1.5. Barring some freak incident Vettel’s practically guaranteed a top 3 spot. Raikkonen’s super reliable and so’s his car, and Hamilton has had a storming few races. If he keeps that up the Spaniard will slip from the top 3.

The tyres for Spa will medium and hard.

As always, your thoughts, insights, comments and tips are welcome.

Morris Dancer


  1. Two early bets so far for me, in both cases following a familiar pattern as I find it very difficult to find any value in backing the big guns.

    First I've backed Roman Grosjean (again looking to defend my seasons points SELL bet on him). Here I asked for and obtained a price of 1.85 (4/5 in old money) on him achieving a top six finish)
    Ricciardo appears to be on the cusp of landing the No.2 seat with Red Bull for next season and will be keen to impress this weekend. I've backed him at value odds of 7/4 with Laddies to finish top 10.

  2. Top 6 for Grosjean looks promising.

    Ricciardo... maybe. McLaren appear to have taken a step forward which will reduce his chances, if true.

  3. Mr Dancer, are you considering a post here today? I regret that I won't be reading PB much if you comment over there as my touchpaper is short today and I'll bite. Not in a mood to tolerate fools today. I spent last night handing out bottled water to motorists stuck in the border queue to get out of Gib and my tolerance is at an all time low.

    I'll bite on the Grosjean tip at 8/11. Safety car considering the conditions I would think. Ricciardo is 5/4 with WH for points and I can't see the value there.

    It's a gorgeous day so I'm going down the pub to watch qualifying. The umbrellas at the end of the quay in this pic marks my local bar ;)

  4. Mr. M, I will be posting a pre-qualifying piece today. Not sure whether I'll be offering a qualifying tip, though.

    Sorry to hear the Spanish authorities are continuing to be cretinous.