Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Britain: early discussion



Well, after rumours that Pirelli might sue and Mercedes might leave the Tribunal of Doom ended up giving them a slap on the wrist. Mercedes do miss the Young Driver Test, but given they themselves suggested that as a penalty it’s hardly being burnt at the stake.

Some say Red Bull may be considering an overt rebellion by openly testing in-season and defying the ban on so doing: http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/112205.html

However, there’s a world of difference from an ‘in good faith’/accidental breaking of the rules and wilfully flouting them. The FIA would come down on Red Bull like a ton of bricks and I think this is very unlikely to happen.

Pirelli are taking the hard and medium compounds to Silverstone, which has drawn some criticism from Lotus, who legitimately argue that there’s no point making tyres softer if you then take harder compounds to each race. Tyres for Silverstone and a race or two later can be found here: http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/6/14675.html

Speaking of Lotus, they’re taking a hefty upgrade to Britain and are hopefully of once again fighting at the sharp end. Although Raikkonen’s poor showing at Monaco can be attributed to the difficulty of overtaking and well-known qualifying issues, his poor performance in Canada may be more worrying for the team.

Given it’s 3 weeks between races I imagine just about every team will have an upgrade of one size or another. We’ll have to see how they, and the weather, work out.

Morris Dancer

2 comments:

  1. My early doors bet on the British Grand Prix is 2.2 price, or 6/5, that Toro Rosso's Daniel Ricciardo finishes in the points (i.e. in the top 10), not the first time this season that I've placed such a bet.
    His chances this time look distinctly more encouraging having finished top of the pile in P1, albeit in the rain, and then 6th in P2.
    His credentials appear further supported by the encouraging performance of his team mate Jean-Eric Vergne who finished in 7th place in both practice sessions, suggesting that Toro Rosso are on or near to the required pace.

    Separately and longer term, I placed a spread bet with Sporting yesterday - SELLING Grosjean's season's points at 103. Thus far his tally from the first 7 GPs is 26 points, representing an average of 3.7 points per GP. Extrapolating this for the full 19 GP season gives him 70 points. I think he'll probably do somewhat better than this but break even for me on this bet requires him to win a further 77 points (103-26) from the remaining 12 GPs, equivalent to 6.4 points per GP which looks like a big ask. I'll stop loss this bet should his BUY price increase to around 125 points. On the upside, I'll be tempted to cash in my chips should his BUY price fall to around the 90 point level.
    Wish me luck!

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    1. I think there's a pretty good chance of the Ricciardo bet coming off, but I like the Grosjean one more. The Lotus is fast but the field's very competitive and Grosjean's not as reliable as he should be.

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